I was very busy this morning, so I missed this thread. Could you please explain what prompted you to conclude that today will be a negative day? It is very interesting to see how the intuition works for some people. In case somebody is wondering, no, there is no hidden agenda in my question. As a psychologist I am interested in this sentiment phenomenon. As the matter of fact, I would like everybody to share their intuition calls. It is a very interesting subject!
Maestro: You ask a very interesting question. The reason of my decision/call is a procedure/numbers, but I tend sometimes(most of the time) to go ahead of those numbers/formula. I always ask myself if I would not be better off to just give it to someone else who would follow it on my behalf. In the case of today, based on the formula I knew that at around 10:10AM, the market would have to fall or lie. It cannot invalid some mathematical description. The numbers told me it would not be an up day, but I was a bit worried to miss an early down move. That is why I entered some of my position earlier than 10:10AM. I have now to restudy the market, to see whether it can go the other way from this point forward. So, I am going to relook at the numbers to make a decision. The market has more degrees of freedom, and my job is to find those times and prices when the degrees of freedom are at a minimum or none. I hope (and I think) that you would understand that I cannot go further. But you are right the psychology is also important.
Jibberish ^ Why did you remove that trade you posted? Oh thats right it told a different story then the bs you've been typing today.
What numbers do you use? Do you rely more on your intuition or you run some sort of analytical formula?
After years of study and extensive backtesting Riskfreeguessing came up with the quant program called "SWAG" Most people do not realize it is actually an acronym for Simple Wild Ass Guess.
Well actually the trade you posted and then quickly removed didnt jive with the story you been telling people in this thread. it had you shorting the high and covering on the low, which does not work with your saying you got short 1979/80 area as you claim
It is a formula/formulas with an analysis procedure. It is not intuition. The intuition/psychology enters when at times I would want not to miss or want to get out earlier. My psychological inclination seems to be to enter too early, and exit too early (afraird to miss, and I do not know what to call the early exit). Maybe I am greedy at entry, and not greedy at exit.
When I was doing my thesis on behavioral patterns I met a guy (a patient of a clinic I was working in) who could accurately diagnose a disease without having a medical degree. He did it consistently for 3 years. I was studying this phenomenon.
So basically he claims to have a system but he does not really follow it all that closely when his intuition kicks in and we should not expect to get any hard data