From Reuters: "Oil rises to near $115 on US-Russia missile spat "The news of Russia's potential response to the US-Poland missile shield is causing crude to recover from earlier losses here," a New York-based crude broker said. " Yeah, that's what it was. Sure...whatever you say. They have an answer for everything don't they?
If it had been a 9.3 million barrel draw down we would have spiked like $10, this should have been worth $3-4 on the downside, see what tomorrow brings.
Like I said, expiry usually tosses out techs and fundamentals, it is a game of closing out before settle (unless u want crude dumped in your driveway).
I disagree, a 9.3 million draw down would have most definetly been limit up and we'd probably reach $150 or $200 very soon. Markets are forward looking, obviously there are some supply/demand issues seen in the near future. I would not be suprised that there is a major draw on the next report to balance things out. If not, then prices will probably fall and fast.
Don't try to explain the rationale of oil prices because it's a losing game. GS reiterated a previous call that oil would touch 149 by years end. Oil had every reason to fall today yet it didn't. This should give you a hint what position to take. Demise of oil is wishful thinking. Next superspike in oil will come when the FEDS have to bailout Fannie and Freddie. Should send the dollar weaker. Don't forget Russia threatening to nuke Poland if they allow US missile bases to be set up in their country. I can see oil crossing 120 tomorrow.
The fact that oil prices lifted in the face of a large rise in crude inventories and another rebound in the U.S. dollar was significant, said James Cordier, president of Tampa, Fla.-based trading firms Liberty Trading Group and OptionSellers.com. "We had two of the most bearish factors thrown at oil today, and we're closing moderately higher," Cordier said, adding that it indicates that oil's recent selloff might be over. "We're seeing supply concerns go back into the price of a barrel of oil." And with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting in early September, supply concerns could rise further if countries decide to lower their output in response to slower demand. Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said he might propose an output cut at the next OPEC meeting http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080820/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices_73
Why do I find it hilariously funny that someone actually has to point this out on a website thats supposidly made up of "real" traders? LOL!
Like i said before this method of trading and forecasting doesn't actually work anymore, since the trading range is just incredibly tight at the moment on both sides! A prime example of this is last week on monday, there was a bloody war going on ontop of a key pipeline that goes to USA, but the cude price instead of rocketing up, only went up $1 overnight, and then closed the day down nearly $4s!! But if you had taken this as a sign that even when theres war il still down, then when war over itd go even lower, you would have got *******! As someone above correctly pointed out when you trade crude you have to actually be ahead of the market to make any money, not be in-line with the market. Because by the time you actually see a move like today, its too late, you've missed it!! LOL Im not trading tomorrow, but i strongly think we will sell selling down tomorrow.
It's all about sector rotation. Oil was not in favor a few days ago so bullish news would have no impact on prices. Today we saw bearish news and prices pop. 110 support held. Cosolidation between 112-116 area for close to two weeks. Today we're seeing a breakout to the higher trading range currently at 116.56. Break of 117 and oil will touch 120. Oil is on its 3rd trading day in the green. I can see momentum pushing it to 120 by end of week which is next resistance level. Will take some bullish news to pop it above that mark. Bank on traders using the Russia crisis with Poland as a reason to propel oil prices up on supply concerns. This is already the headline being used but you'll see it magnified as Russia reiterates their threats on a daily basis. Chinese demand will pick up once again with the Olympics coming to an end. I have no clue where oil will close the year but I'm on the GS camp that it will close much closer to 149 than 80. Current geopolitical concerns and Asian demand are not going away anytime soon. Gartman and his $80 prediction is a joke.