I think it would be a miracle if you succeeded in this attempt, due to the intrument you are trading. I think 8k-80k trading equity options is very possible as if you found a good set-up, at the right time you would need 3-4 situations where an option would double (20% increase in the underlying if using a far out month) and compound. That is the only way i think this can be done.
<i>"So really to make $50K you have to make ay least 3% on your equity EVERY DAY. And that assumes about 180 out of 200 winning days. I say 50K because you'll have some effect from compounding in there. These are just very rough figures. don't hold me to the math. So what do you think?"</i> Well, I think you got too engrossed in linear progression mathematics for support of an opinion. Along the way, one simple fact was forgotten: the OP can add contracts as account size grows. Rework your numbers if the OP evolves from one contract to five by July 1st, and ten contracts by October 1st. Most likely outcome is $8,000+ goes to $800 or $18,000 sooner or later. The latter scenario is possible, and added contract size is logical from there.
Hmmm, I guess you missed the point entirely. The point was that for a beginner (yes, someone with 12 months trading experience posting an a message board asking if we think his profit goals are attainable is a beginner), the idea that an effective way to design your business is to set a goal of 1000% return is misguided at least and a possible reason for failure at worst. I'm all for shooting for the stars and setting high goals for oneself. However, if you're a high school basketball player, 6'1", and your goal is to be going head to head with Kevin Garnett by the end of the semester, you need to re-think your goals. If the OP thinks that 1000% percent PA is a reasonable goal and after the first month of active trading, he's up by 20% (a fantastic result) what's his next move? If he thinks that 1000% PA is the 'right' goal, does he try 5 contracts the following day? Do you understand how quickly he can lose more than the value of his account doing that? My point is that profit goals should be a lesser consideration for him. Let him try to trade profitably every day and come out of the first year with his equity, which is better than most guys do. Don't you think a beginner asking if he can make 1000% is just a little counterproductive?
I recommend an instrument with less leverage. Its too easy to blow out on 8k with even 1 ER2. One bad day of undisciplined scaling in and huge adverse market moves will take you out of the entire game. (yes, I've done that) You can always scale up when your head gets above water (above the 20k mark) You can buy all the support levels (or sell all the resistance you want), and just as easily get taken out. Especially on the ER2, which *is* a secondary market. [vs S&P being a primary market.] And yes, you really need a strategy. I recommend you grab a copy of ninjatrader and start designing some systems to backtest against your favorite instruments. It'll teach you a little about probability (and your probability of success with your proposal) and what to expect will happen with seeming randomness that comes with discretionary trades. Unless your strategy is to wait for market crash day and buy and pray when markets are down 30%, this is bit of a roulette type play. I voted yes for you - it can be done (anything can be done), but I recommend you learn a little more before you jump balls in. The ER2 is wicked when it doesn't go your way. And it will *inevitably* go against you... eventually.
Let's ignore the fallacy in theoretical progressions, use $10k starting capital, and the ES trading 1 contract per $5k to make the example easier for others. If we assume the trader has alternative means for living expenses and waits to pay taxes then it will take 257 trading days making 1 point (net after commissions) per day per contract to achieve a $100k account. So can you make 1 ES point per day per contract?
I like your ambitious plan. 100% support to you. I made a similar one for 2008. I got a bad start in the first two days of trading, but I am full of determination. Just one input: when it gets tough, be strong!
I would say the odds are about the same as 10 Pips Per Day - Everyday. It is "possible" but the odds are stacked heavily against you.
If I blow it, I'll be just another schmuck who lost $8k in the market. But if I pull it off, then it would be pretty impressive yes?