There's a difference between a trader that tries to find a general movement and find a way to enter and exit that movement in a successful way, and a trader who finds a movement and tries to enter in the opposite direction. Some are able to do it. Apex from the ES thread seems to be able to keep his losses small enough to be successful. But if you watch his posts on a week he isn't really in tune, it's a series of entries and stop outs. You have to question if you can be right enough, have the discipline to profit completely when you are right, and be able to take being wrong a lot. The temptation is to always be a trail blazer and not to go along with the consensus while it lasts. JIM
nice post. But i think techincal analysis is over emphasized. everyone knows about it and far too many use it. So there is no edge. Also, using ten different techincal indicators over complicates things whereas as trading is not that complicated once "it" clicks.
Good thread, keep it up. This is what ET needs more of. The second mouse...... SPOT ON! In regards to TA, the fact that so many use it (in all its forms and fashion), isn't that a good part of what makes it work? If it works why not use it? With that said, I am a technical trader (full disclosure) and admit that a lot of it is self-fufilling prophecy stuff (pivot points are a great example of this in my opinion). Also right now, these markets are being technically traded to the "T". Gap fills and retraces are just about text book right now. 10,000 ways to make/lose money in the markets....PICK ONE! Just some thoughts. Good Luck!
If the statement (85% of traders don't understand trading) is true, 85% of the posters on this thread don't understand trading. Funny thing is that almost 100% of the posters on this thread agree with the statement, but assume that they don't belong to the 85%. Then where do we find those 85% traders? OK, let's find them right here on this thread: The second mouse gets the cheese, assuming that there is a mouth trap. If there is no mouth trap, the second mouse is always the hungry mouse. Too late, buddy, the rally is over. The opposite saying goes: the early birds gets the worm. I may be wrong, in that case, I belong to the 85%.
I think the implication of the second mouse gets the cheese is; Wait for the breakout. Something or someone has to get the ball rolling (the first mouse) They (the first mice) could be winners too, but the (time) they spend waiting for price movement is longer than the second mouse. The second mouse will profit from the meat of the trend, (if they know when to exit) At least thats how I see it as a spectator.
i know you're trying to say sth, but i don't quite get it since all you said are contradictory to each other. you're saying, traders shouldn't predict anything, but then why should they analyze demand and supply? for what purpose?
I think you can (should?) be both first and second mouse.. Tale a look at CLF attached.. Stocks like this when swing trading don't chop back and forth to feed the second Mouse... I was long at 81.. reversed short on Friday.. BUT I am endlessly nervous as the second Mouse as a whip-saw is possible though not the nature of CLF.. WHAT I SHOULD HAVE DONE but for some reason, cannot.. is to have been the First Mouse.. (short 1/2 position at 99 or so) and Second Mouse - in this case.. (add this coming week on break of Friday's low).. Complicating the trade is MACD has not rolled over so stop over $100.. No predicting price here BUT I'd be stupid not to at least partially cover should it trade below 77.
Here's a quote from dac8555 on another thread titled "Better to Predict...or React?" overall i agree with you. But, I have an image stuck in my mind of a job interview i did several years ago for position as an FX trader...The guy interviewing me did pretty well...about $600k per year. had about 15 years under his belt. In the interview, he said "how do you trade" I said, "the idea is not to try to predict the future, but to be a part of it" he replied "like hell you're not trying to predict the future!!!", and the interview was over right there...i didnt get the job.