You a macro expert now? Whenever market is at crossroads IMO you gotta go with every cycle, be it counter uptrend or counter downside. I view daily cycle as being very close to having completed itself. But...
Retail traders just double down, they don't get shaken out of a position because they don't use stops. Here is how a retail trader loses money. He martingales all the time, but always covers/sells too early, tend to lose more on losers than on winners, but he has a positive winning percentage. He maximizes winning percentage and tends to enter and exit positions far too early.
No and please note I'm not anywhere near being any kind of expert. I'm constantly learning new things. ...but I can eyeball this trap!..don't have to measure anything to see that much!
I don't entirely agree with your statement, as even if you place your stop entirely outside the noise you could still get squeezed. There is no optimal stop because directional bias is 50/50.
Hardest thing in the world is to figure out optimal stop placement with futures trading...I'll always take an options trade over a futures trade if there is sufficient liquidity (tight bid/ask)...The overnight markets pretty much guarantee stop runs every single night...