I agree with wrbtrader. Some variations of pullbacks within strong trends are IMO the highest probability trade which ever existed. One just got to learn to spot those. And that is the matter of practice, dedication, patience and discipline. Maybe also some natural ability to pattern recognition too, but I'm not sure about this thesis (genetical ability/inability to trade/analyse the markets).
Automated trader and developer Keith Fitchen mentioned this in his DVD: countertrend strategies work best intraday.
This is funny because here we are in a pullback in an uptrend on snp and everybodys afraid to go long.
Funny. I tell you to stop making subjective claims like "80 %" (a random number you pulled out of your arse) and you tell me to stop the bs. I wonder if your inability to estimate has anything to do with your trading skills.
Can you see how difficult it is to stay with the trend?See every trick in the book to shake out existing positions and in all there are 16 potential false breaks or shake-outs. 1 trend /16 potential false breaks , 1/16 = 6%. There were countless trends on the micro scale tick/1 minute , but only one major move . http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/trading_trends.php
Oilfxpro, That chart represents an obvious trend. Yet, I highly recommend that you stay away from sub $1 dollar stocks or penny stocks as represented in your choice of chart example. With that said, the author is incorrect in the analysis of "trend trading". For example, a trend trader that enters @ #1 or #2...that trend trader would hold onto the position instead of exiting and re-entering multiple times in whipsaws or chop between #4 to #12. Further, the trend traders that are late and chasing...they'll most likely enter around #13 to #16 that are decent entries and very profitable. Simply, your choice of this chart in an effort to show "how difficult it is to be a trend trader" without (once again) discussing how you would have traded that trend is obvious again you don't know how to trade a trend... Most likely due to your inability to manage your discipline to stay in a profitable trade until it reaches its profit target or you have a poor trade management plan. Thanks again for the hindsight chart.
The way I trade trends is with 80/100 pip stops , trailing stop of 80, enter when trends lines are started on lower times and existing trends lines are at an end.Run the profits etc.This way I keep out of noise.
First, why don't you start by posting charts of Forex currencies in reference to your "80/100 pip stops" instead of posting charts of sub $1 dollar stock or penny stocks ??? You mention you "run the profits" and "I keep out of noise". You seem to be implying you're not having any problems in trading trends...correct ? Therefore, I will now assume this thread is not about your "trend trading" problems but more about what you see occurring in the "trend trading" of others...correct ?
I dont have problem trading trends http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3665484#post3665484 I do have experience of failure of trends and trend set ups.