80 % fail at trend trading

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by oilfxpro, Oct 28, 2012.

  1. Why 80% fail at using a trend following technique to trade the forex


    There are fundamental reasons why trend trading does not work everyday on currencies , this is simply because there are no major changes in currency price drivers on a daily basis i.e interest rates changes and changes in economies on a daily basis.

    Herebelow are examples of several trend failures/fakes , before eventually a trend materialists.

    These trends don't materialize on a daily basis in day trading .

    Trend trading is the most profitable type of trading , offering highest risk reward trades.How do you differentiate between the real trends and fakes , and avoid false breakouts?Most of the time , what is made from trend trading is lost in fakes and trend failures. except when trends continue for days,weeks and months in one direction.

    My point with this thread was to see an unbiased (from vendors and internet marketeers) and subjective discussion on trend trading.

    80 % of the time the market ranges and 80 % of one minute trends fail.
  2. Here the same trend fails , becomes a down trend and reverses finally into a higher high up trend.It knocked out all the long stops and reversed .
  3. Lucrum


    I haven't seen any recent stats. But over the years the consensus seemed to be that most markets are only trending between 15% and 30% of the time to begin with.
  4. Where did that 80 % come from? Did you make it up or hear it from another "trader" here?

    No wonder you cannot day trade.

    You still have not explained why so many people on Wall Street are rich, and why I am rich. I guess your reason is still that they are in sky scrappers, and you are in a basement. I'm sure that does affect your trading.

    You have personality problems that need to be cured before you attempt trading again. I hope I am helpful.


  5. Waiting for the rest of E T rebuttal team to knock subjective discussions .....and input more crap into discussions of a serious nature.

    Why don't you start another positive thread with B S?
  6. I trade intraday short term trends 25 to 35 pips first target in Forex and 25 to 35 ticks first target in CL. I do not find any problems trend following for intraday trading in these markets.

    CL is the best for me and Forex is a close second. If you watch at least 8 pairs there are plenty of intraday opportunities day after day. CME Fx is just as good.

    I only trade long term trends with leveraged ETF and some Forex. I do not find an issues with trade opportunities that work more than half the time with good r:r money management.
  7. 2rosy


    i am curious too. anyway, by stating that 80% fail you are already biased
  8. NoDoji


    0% of trends fail. If there's a trend, that means there's a trend. 100% of trends...trend!

    Since no trader can identify a trend until price does the thing that defines a trend (higher lows/higher highs or lower highs/lower lows), once it's identified, it's a...TREND!

    However, a very large percentage (probably at least 80%) of trends reverse and 100% of trends end.

    Many patterns that are used as a signal for a potential trend fail. Breaks out of consolidation, breaks to new highs/lows, these patterns often fail to produce a definable trend. Who cares, though? Just trade the signal and apply the money management rules that produced consistent profitability when you developed your trading plan.
  9. kut2k2


    What NoDoji said.

    Trends don't fail, trend traders fail. They fail to find the trend in a timely manner ("trendlines"? Seriously?) and hence they fail to secure a decent profit before the trend ends.

    Get a clue, oily.
    #10     Oct 28, 2012