75% obama victory

a quant friend just ran the numbers on prediction markets going back to 1988-- obama has a 75% chance of victory, much higher than intrade. I am long Romney and am hoping for a surprise victory! surf

 

I think you just jinxed it

 

I hope you got a tight stop on that Romney trade.

 

I'm not sure everyone understands what these numbers mean. Intrade, Nate Silver, this guy. This is just the likelihood that Obama will win the 50/50, win or lose. 75% chance does not mean the same as receiving 75% of the votes, or the EC or anything. I had another online discussion today with someone who couldn't figure out how the race is only a few points in Obama's favor, yet Intrade shows 67%.

If Obama wins by 1 electoral vote, then they win the bet.

 

This election is going to end up in court.

 

Crap - Surf is for Romney? Atticus, I might just pay you tonight, man and get it out of the way.

 

I'm not doubting you bought shares. I'm referring to some of your wicked predictions in the past I recall. Gold and ES come to mind off the top of my head as particularly brilliant.

 

That's what I've been thinking.

 

Please no