At the moment, the market anticipates at least a quarter-point move, with a 75% chance of a half-point move. But trading on that score has been highly volatile. :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
where are you getting your data? i see something different. 48% probability of -50bp 24% probability of -25bp 15% probability of -75bp 12% probability of 0bp
I agree with Blackjack. Your numbers are off. 98.9% of 50% cut when looking at Feb. Futures which might also price in possibility of a suprise rate cut that month.