Good question. Here's a hint for those who's brain-cells don't go that far back. When was the previous peak for gold? And, who wants to return to a time when rates lurched back-and-forth like that???
sigh the odds of a 25 bp rate cut according to the market is 1.4% right now.... 50 bps cut chance is 53.9% chance 75 bps cut is 43.9% chance 25 bps hike is 0.8% any more bad news events and that 75 bps cut chance is gonna climb even more
odds are 43% - how does 43% = no way? if you are absolutely sure its not gonna be a 75 bps cut, margin your account to the max on the trade thats its not gonna be a 75bps cut.... but I bet you don't, I love people who talk in "no way" and "most likely" but never put one cent where their mouth is....
They are not official. You got them from a pretty bad source. The market has already priced in a 50bp move. It's pretty much a lock according to the market (above 100%), and you can tell by the value of the Feb contract. The question is not whether there will be 50bp or not (market has already priced in this expectation fully), but is if there will be 75bp.
This is the most patient I have ever been on the internet, sigh I logged into this thread because never before have I seen so many people that need so much help.... agev, what is 43.9 + 53.9 answer, 97.8 what does that mean? its means there is a 97.8% chance of a 50 bps rate cut (or greater) does that qualify as a lock for you? (it does for me).
Fed fund futures is predicting 95.9% chance of 75 bps rate cut. It's gonna happen. Correct me if my math is wrong. Fed fund for Feb is currently trading at 96.35.
Also, Fed Fund futures in August are predicting rates at 2.75% So if we only get .50% cut on the 31st. Then for sure we will we another .25 or .50 cut in March. I think a lot of people are confusing what their hearts are telling about what the fed should do (raise rates/no cuts) vs. Reality: major cuts are cumming!