One indeed may want to look at total current US deposits....and a) $7 Trillion http://www2.fdic.gov/sod/pdf/ddep_2008.pdf Then estimate.... 1) Bailout costs disclosed http://amolpatil2k.blogspot.com/2008/10/bailout-bill-loops-in-green-tech-irs.html 2) Bailout costs not disclosed 3) Guarantees disclosed 4) Guarantees not disclosed 5) Oil deficit http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/...ons/company_level_imports/current/import.html 6) China (The WMT deficit) http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2008 7) Recent money dilution http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/ 8) Total stock and bond holdings 9) Total real estate holdings 10) Savings rate = 0 .................................................................................. What one knows is that : stocks have declined over 50% real estate has declined over 20% $500 million to just over $1 trillion will be paid out for ME oil and China trinkets.... Banks and brokerages have basically lost the majority of individual deposits.....and the US has formed a long term tax program so that the population can finance this loss to themselves............ Insurance companies have lost a significant portion of the retirement funds/insurance premiums that were entrusted.... We also know that many banks and insurance companies have not completed the markdowns..... .............................................................................................. Thus in a nutshell....what is going to be the process whereby this wealth can be replaced in the fastest and best manner possible....? 1) Through increasing taxes on a diminished and diminishing base ? 2) Or by imposing a simple 10% consumption tax ...whereby the base will increase ? ............................................................................................. One easily notes the known bailout amounts are more than 2x what is in savings deposits.....with far more to come .... One also notes that 1/7 of savings deposits leaves the US for ME oil and China WMT trinkets every year.....
3.68 $Trillion in money market funds guaranteed by the Fed ? http://www.ici.org/home/mm_11_20_08.html Correction above .... Over $500 Billion not million to Over One $Trillion leaves the US in one year to pay for Oil and China (WMT)..... ................................................................................... What is clear is that the world has a wealth replacement problem both for corporations and individuals.... So the answer has to be stock....because a stock can rapidly appreciate many times its initial price....whereas debt and real estate cannot match the capability of stock..... Thus the question becomes.....how can stocks can generated, broadly distributed...and be given an expected strong upward price expectation.... Furthermore...why entrust the new world stock market ...to the very fools who just lost your money....and are very expensive due to their conflicts of interest and legal largesse.... And no, I am not kidding.... ....................................................................... Stock on a worldwide direct access exchange should cost no more than 20 cents per 100 shares... One can trade through Genesis from anywhere in the world today....which is proof positive the delivery system works.... BATS which is not from NYC or WS....can setup shop anywhere in the world..... Google can deliver information to anyone, anywhere in the world.... All entries can be low cost boiler plate. There could be new management firms spouting up all over the place.... Who in their right mind needs WS firms/banks ? For what ?
First the floor traders, then the whole of Wall Street. Who, outside of New York would miss them? The downside would be that there would be nobody with clout to oppose a transaction tax!!
DE Shaw would never want a transaction tax..... Guess who heads it.... Maybe he can add.....bid ask spreads....and find out that this alone is more than the returns DE Shaw looks for....