- In my opinion: trading based on your feelings is a recipe for disaster. More: the odds of getting wiped out get very high when you don't observe money management - Ok, that is a good subject. to be extremely sincere, I think that traders making money with their feelings are the best, but, they are very rare. U need self confidence to make money, and if you don't trust your feelings,it is because they make u trade emotionnally. well, i think all the educationnal/brokerage trading business (books, websites, advisors, brokers , trading systems, tradingmarkets, etc...) are just a way to make u fill more self confident very often with other ideas. I don't think they will ever make u a good trader. Now , u could replace feeling by reason, high risk reward signals given by a complex trading system, at the end, whatever makes u self confident. I certainly do not want to hurt anybody thinking. My experience shows that the best traders I know and work with, and sometimes are part of it, base at the end their bets on feelings (which is the best computer in the world), but they feel very different from many, they are warriors, live for the trading ... a long interesting discussion About volatility, I trade with listed options, and recently with variance swaps . Thanks
U need good instincts to trade on your feelings and be able to trust them. And intuition is not a skill u can cultivate; it's either present in u or is not. Majority of traders are not intuitive and want to complicate things that in reality are very simple, they refute to discern sentiment and make decisions that are instinctual: that would not represent a safe course of action. They continue to search for an edge they lack from within: the road to nowhere is the one they chose.
This is a very good thread and I am really enjoying it. I really do agree that "feeling" or "intuition" can be cultivated. At the risk of sounding too mystical about the whole thing, but there are investors and traders that are just on another level. They can just filter out the noise, find the trend and move into it like a lion on a gazelle. I was reading "Hedge Hogging" by Barton Biggs, and he elaborates very well on this subject. He equates them to horse whisperers, you can't explain it, but it just exists. Don't discount those that tune their abilities to this level. As far as going big into one position that you feel you have an edge on, Warren Buffet does just this thing. He's not always correct (just look at his losing dollar play last year), but he does it and Buffet himself even advocates "putting all your eggs into one basket, but then watch that basket VERY CLOSELY". There's a quote from a trader, they call him Peter the Great (he's a billionaire) in "Hedge Hogging", and he questions Biggs about how many positions he will be holding in the proposed hedge fund. Biggs states 20 to 25 separate positions, and Peter the Great laughs at him. He says basically to f*(^k off and get lost. He says that he doesn't equally like wine and people, so why would he invest in 25 different positions. Go in big to the positions you like and do battle. If you think about it, the big guns do exactly that. Buffet isn't taking a position, he's buying himself onto the board so he can not only own a significant part of the company, he can also affect his position. This concept shouldn't be dismissed, rather it should be aspired to. The difficulty is being honest enough with ourselves to identify when we are or are not to that point, then having the conviction to take the position.
I think that was more than seven tips. If you actually read Livermore you would know that tips are for suckers. I just love when successful traders decide to open their hearts and give away all the secrets to success. Get real frenchy... not everyone here is a sucker.
i don't know why some of you start to flame him.. he's just giving some tips .. or maybe you think you are godlike and have nothing to learn from anyone ? feel free to ignore them if you think you don't need them. sigh
When I want to suggest something I come out and suggest it. If someone wants to come out and teach, first you have to supply a proven track record. This is the way the world works incase you guys forgot.
there always has to be an A$$hole in the scenario doesnt there? Ill bet $10k that you are unprofitable. If you were profitable you would understand that you can give idea and suggestions until your head explodes but it is up to the individual to make it happen. If i told you what you had to do to become an NFL running back does that mean you can do it? no. same applys here slappy. As for livermore, people read and follow his "tips" to this day. tips like "hold on to your winners" "you dont have to trade all the time....you make money just sitting tight""have your own plan" you know the 'ol standbys. the same things are repeated by various people in market wizzards 50 years later. the "turtles" gave away all of their secrets to success...i will send them to you if you like if you think that giving people ideas, thought, suggestions and "tips" will make them rich, and that those ideas should be held as proprietary information....YOU are the sucker.
When I started trading, one of the best traders I've met to date told me to be willing to listen to the ideas of other traders and then tuck them away and watch to see how their ideas work out. He said not to ignore or argue with people because they may not be profitable or as profitable as you because anyone can have good ideas, just not everyone may have the character to trade and profit off it.