7/30 week (potential) large movers; GMCR, LNKD

Discussion in 'Options' started by pikerforlife, Jul 29, 2012.

  1. these are a couple candidates for earnings options plays this next week.

    Green Mountain Coffee, GMCR, is pricing in a $3+ move, on an ~$18 price. reports after market close wednesday. has a history of making wild moves after earnings, and is at support here. place your bets by wed., if the release will crack support or spurn a squeeze.

    LinkedIn, LNKD, is pricing in a 10% move off it's $100ish price, reports after market close thursday. pop for a retest of recent highs, ~$110, or roll over to test support in the low $90s? with the numbers out thur., it will make for an interesting weekly opex.

    directional? or unbiased?

    thinking of trying two small OTM butterflies again, a few strikes out each way. maybe a cheap additional spread on the upside for GMCR, $23/$24 weekly is only .05, and considering the $50 -> $30 move last earnings release caused, a large move is not out of the question.

    anyone else thinking of playing?
  2. I'm thinking.. I wanna play these at earnings.. They do make wild moves..... Meaning that if they do miss by alot they will get killed because they are both way over valued... Especially both of them.. Haha i forget linkin 's multiple but it was like crazy high... I think with these making consistant otm bearish bets eventually leads to huge wins... I'm thinking of a straight up options purchase. .... Gmcr i've hear of accounting fraud a while back and i just think its a fad kind of company. ... Without their kerig they are screwed... And people will slowly fall out of love with these things... You can't keep sellling this stupid thing to everyone over and over again.. Most people if they do buy one don't buy another just because a few new features are offered... Just my thoughts.... These are totally pretty girl stocks.. And your right they do and will make wild moves that options never can compltely price..
  3. Actually gmcr might have over compressed multiple at this point... I haven't looked at it in a while. . Its trading at a 9 pe... Hmmm i take that back im more up in the air about that one now... There could be way to much pessimism built into this stock... So i'd love to hear others ideas...

  4. And remember to open the butterflies with the body at your target price ( GMCR 18 - 3 = 15 and GMCR 18 + 3 = 21 ), so the body in this case is at $15.00 and $21.00. Of course when you enter the positions the strikes might be different if GMCR has moved a way from $18.00. Same with LNKD.

  5. Any ideas Mr Dia Options? if you had to bet on one of these two and your life depended on with.. which would it be and how would you do it to make the most amount of doe
  6. In GMCR's case I believe the idea is to buy both butterflies for dimes and sell one for 1 dollar, will have to look at the quotes and do some math. LNKD would be higher prices.

    I assume that's what pikerforlife is up to.

  7. Otm butterflys? Near term? Sell atm back month?
  8. All those questions are covered in this thread.

  9. Not explicitly.. I'm dumb remember :). I'm gonna model some flys o see what you might be talking about

  10. Not explicitly? ..... Can't get more explicit than what's been covered.

    #10     Jul 30, 2012