65% win ratio with 1:1 risk/reward?

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by BillySimas, Jun 23, 2008.

  1. In general, do you think there are many simple intraday systems with a win ratio as high as 65% when the risk to reward is an even 1 to 1? I have a breakaway gap strategy that seems to trade very very very well on momentum, but despite my manual test results I am finding it hard to believe that the win rate is 65%. I have heard many times that it is very difficult to find anything above 50%. What does everyone think?
  2. It was hard for me to get anything above 40% for a long time. The good thing was that I didnt "need" a better percentage to be profitable. At some point something clicked and I now have a much nicer number and a lot more P. :)
  3. Yes, obviously lots of profitable traders have 4:1 or better reward-to-risk setups and they are only right maybe 30% of the time, this is common knowledge. I am speaking merely about 1:1 setups, does anyone have ideas on whether or not 65% is a feasible win rate? I haven't fully backtested this strategy and I'm just wondering if they data I have gathered so far is a good estimate.

  4. lol i like how you just make up percentages and reward/risk and act like they are just going to happen. :D i wish i could do that!
  5. What are you trading Billy.
    How many trades per session and are you entering on breakout limits or fading the entry in favour of your stop.

  6. Equities, an average of 3-4 trades per day. Limit orders only.

  7. So far so good.

    Do you establish a buy/sell entry zone first, then set your pro stop and finally enter a limit order "n" distance from your pro stop.

  8. I don't know what a pro stop is but yeah the limit order/stop/target are all placed at the same time, upon completion of a candlestick.

  9. Nobody "knows" what the R:R ratio and/or potential for any trade or strategy is. Traders subjectively perceive what they think/hope it is, and that's all.
  10. Duh, I'm talking about backtesting. You have a lot to learn if you don't know what I'm referring to.

    #10     Jun 23, 2008