Try 2 billion people. 1.3bb are heads accounted for. There are hundreds of millions in rural areas who have not been counted in census. ie there are 350 million americans not 300, if you count the illegals. 65 million empty homes for 2 billion people is not much.
I read the whole link and its hilarious. They basically claim the whole Chinese housing and loan industry is based on some back alley deals with rates north of 20% p.a. While there are select cases, probably like in any other country (Japan has a huge black loan market with rates easily north of 30% and it has so far never blown up for decades), this is surely not the norm in China nor Japan. I at least do not know a single person who borrowed the down payment at rates suggested in that link ;-)
buddy, the problem with your post is that the whole link was based on quotes by 2-3 individuals, and that was only their opinion and hear-say not facts. So when someone quotes based on your link then of course he/she can only refer to a single person because that was the whole content of your link, lol. I can assure you that 98% of all Chinese do not and did not borrow money to finance down payments in houses at loan shark rates. So, how is my claim more or less credible than the link you posted? Its an opinion, based on our experience, and the same with the content of your link. So, play the ball low, the problem with Chinese economics is that only very few statistics are reliable, everything else is gamed and needs to be approximated. What I dont agree with your link is that it is based on the mere opinions of 2-3 people. To make for a representative sample needs a lot more than that...
What Newguy quoted was a line about suicides, the inference being that the quote alone nullified everything else that was posted on the topic by Mish, which it does not. I was more interested in the Chinese property bubble in general, Mish's post on ponzi financing, if accurate, just adds to it's seriousness and may be an indication that it's ready to pop. But that's right, after skimming through the rest of this thread, I see that you guys are arguing that there's no bubble. Great, so because you can't see a bubble and don't even know anyone that's having difficulties servicing their Chinese real-estate loans, there must not be any bubble in Chinese property. It's different this time because three guys on ET say so, and the hundreds of reports on the net on the Chinese property bubble can be safely disregarded. It's the same talk I've heard in all the bubbles I been through. For all I know you guys, or your families, have significant exposure to Chinese property, or just love China, and just like Americans in 2005 are living in denial. As for your claim being any more credible than the link I posted, that's easy: Mish's track record to date has been very good. He was arguing deflation when everyone but a handful of others were screaming inflation, and he has proven himself over time to be an exceptionally good thinker. Time will tell who is right or wrong.
lol, exactly my point, please re-read my previous post. Its not any more or less credible than someone who received an email from a friend saying that such friend heard from other people about down payments at sky high rates. LOL
you do not read carefully. I claimed that a certain segment in the real estate market is in a bubble. But my point was that it does not matter. Prices at this point can pull up by another 150-200% until the bubble pops, or it could do so tomorrow. Nobody knows. And what I disliked about your link was that the guy who wrote that rant wants to come across as being in the knows that the real estate market already is in decline, which is absolutely not true.
This remark states that you are denying the facts and that you are in denial. That is what the bubble is based on. People who think that the facts are wrong and they remain in denial until they lost 50% on their investment.
you are really talking out of thin air. Can you show me an apartment in Shanghai where the price declined already enough to support your opinion that the real estate market is in decline as we speak? I can show you listings of apartment prices where prices have not moved a bit over the past couple months. In fact the market is pretty much in lock-up mode right now. So, if you come up with that then I accept your "facts" otherwise you should maybe slow down with dumb accusations without merit.
Ponzi loans aside, what Mish said is pretty much in line with what you're saying. Look at his heading: ".......Home sales plunge 44% in Xiamen ; Bubble Bursts in Tianjin. He does not say 44% drop in prices, he says plunge in sales, which is what happens at a property market top. Here's the reference he posted: http://www.whatsonxiamen.com/news13408.html With Tianjin he says the bubble has burst and gives a link to explain the deteriorating property market there: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...nute-as-china-s-real-estate-sales-tumble.html That's what often happens after property prices peak: they begin to stagnate due to insufficient demand and increasing supply. After the initial standoff that may last some time, sellers become anxious and start selling into what by that stage is ever decreasing demand, causing prices to drop. The price drop continues as fear grips sellers and buyers hold off expecting lower prices. At the end you tend to have limited demand for only the best properties. Properties that are poorly located or generally undesirable have no demand. That's my experience anyway over two property booms/busts. He posted many more links to other regions, which I'm not going to bother posting (there's dozens if you include links detailed in articles). If anyone's interested they can do their own research. I've seen enough anyway to know that I'd be selling if I had property in China.