$60 Trillion loss, S&P 500 100-level

Discussion in 'Trading' started by talknet, Jan 7, 2009.

  1. talknet


    By some estimates, combined losses in commodities, stocks, bonds, real estate are greater than $60 trillion. This is beyond rescue. The chart below, borrowed from Dr. Marc Faber's Market Commentary December 1, 2008, is devastating. The chart shows a stunning loss of $30 trillion stock market wealth around the world.

    The erroneous interpretation that FDR's government programs combined with accommodative monetary policy led us out of the Great Depression will result in policies that destroy the currency. It is of little value to debate what should be done, because this is what will be done. Dr. Marc Faber in his latest Market Commentary correctly surmises, “I have repeatedly characterized the current economic conditions as comparable to a war being fought between central banks around the world and the private sector and that this war is likely to be very protracted and will lead to high volatility in all asset classes. We have seen that governments are desperate to support asset markets with “extraordinary” and unprecedented monetary and fiscal measures…”

    The ill-fated measures will fail and do more harm than good. My interpretation of the charts leads me to conclude that the DJIA will correct all of the way back down to the level of the start of the last secular bull market which began in 1982 of 1000. A similar drop to the 100-level in the S&P 500 is to be also be expected. Gold will resort to its status as a currency and all currencies will deflate against gold. The price of gold will likely top out at a price higher than $1000/oz as the ratio of Dow-to-gold dips below 1:1 as indicated in the chart below: