Salient points, although the Wall Streeters got themselves classified as commercials, then used swaps to hide their true exposure. IMO, that's the main reason why all commods went SO high/so fast beyond the justifiable arguments for a bull mkt. I was a hedger in cocoa and $3K+/comtract was actually quite funny. Probably see it again in 3 months.
a bubble is a bubble is a bubble. from the south sea bubble to the tulip bubble to tech to housing to oil, they all act the same, look the same, and its always a gigantic cliff on the other side of it. the benefits from this bubble? firstly, prices are usually a mirror image of the run up on the way down. secondly, hopefully our energy policy won't be retarded in the near future
They did put out a great segment a couple of months back on how credit default swaps evolved from the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000. Very informative for even the average American that goes to work in the morning and has nothing to do with the financial services industry.
Soybeans went to $15 Gold went to $1000. Copper to $4.00 BP to over $2.10 The loonie to $1.11 Minneapolis Wheat to over $20 a bushel but somehow the short lived spike in crude was the product of evil manipulative speculators. Too friggin' funny. I can find virtual 100% price correlation between almost every commodity and currency on both the run-up and now the break. And for cunts who obsess over the "looting" of the consumption happy American middle class by a year or two of high gasoline prices I'd argue that the moral play of Suzi SUV subsidizing starving masses in Nigeria and Venezuela via her pollutants is tit for tat.
great thread guys and very good post Pabst. I certainly am not trying to hijack the thread I just read that this Il Principe is a cocoa hedger. I'd be very interested in hearing what cash cocoa trading and hedging is like. You have your Pm's turned off sir.
That's all well and groovy, except that the evidence suggests there was manipulation going on, on a meaningful scale. Remember, we're not talking about mere speculation, but manipulation. Also, currency fluctuation did not explain the level of volatility in oil prices, so I'm not quite sure why you brought it up. Apart from all that, your self-righteous commentary makes me feel warm all over.