That's interesting....much like you're obsessed with SoCal RE, I'm fascinated by the Northern Chicago sprawl along the lake into Wisconsin. I've been to ChicagoLand many times and I've always been stunned about how either god damned hot or cold it was. I don't know how you people live there.
Palin is sinking McCain in Colorado too: http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/09/colorado-clue.html Date 9-9 9-21 Palin Favorability 41/38 38/47
Palin has received a lot of bad press since her speech. Some deserved some not. Certainly it's diminished her ratings. She's a stock to buy on declines. She's iconic. Big crowds, lots of press. She's not going anywhere but higher profile national. I would be surprised if Obama isn't elected and I'll also be surprised if his term isn't a disaster. It's doubtful the economy will heal anytime soon-in fact there's a lot of downside risk-and other nations are going to test Obama. It's going to be Carteresque. Not necessarily will it be Obama's fault-we're all accidents of history-but he'll catch the blame. Just like Gordon Brown. Palin OTH will be getting more "experienced" by the day, more traveling the world by the day and if todays move in CL is to be believed Palin becomes a more powerful energy czar in Alaska. IOW's many of her 2008 liabilities will not be 2012 liabilities. If I were to lay a 2012 futures board I'd open her at 55% to be the GOP nominee..
If Perot had run as a major party candidate he probably would have won in 1992. To receive 1 out of 5 votes when each of those people know they are wasting their vote is quite an accomplishment. That being said Palin's cult of personality is much stronger than Perot's. She's helped by gender, looks and ability to connect. McCain's likely loss would have been much, much worse without her on the ticket. She'll single handily get McCain over the top in a couple of battleground states. For an unknown VP candidate to burst on the scene and swing more than just a few votes is unheard of in our lifetime
She is still mostly an unknown and people who like her are making surface judgments...both good and bad...but when I heard Sean Hannity on the radio saying he liked Palin shortly after the announcement because "Sarah Palin likes hockey and likes to shoot guns" he was obviously playing to a non intellectual audience who is drawn to the populists candidates or knee jerk politics. No one knows what the hot button is going to be in 2012... Just like no one knows where the markets will be in 2012. Palin lowered the bar again, and the dumbass voters who can't think are attracted to non thinkers like Palin. Water seeks its own level... How she looks, etc. In four years she will be well known. Lots of politicians looked like the next "it" candidate... "For an unknown VP candidate to burst on the scene and swing more than just a few votes is unheard of in our lifetime" For oil to move up 25 dollars in one day is unheard of in our lifetime. It means nothing, but reactionary thinking...and typically fades where there are poor fundamentals behind such movement.
Participation At Rallies (Posted by Lucrm at the Jokes thread) "On television today a Democratic operative pointed out that when Obama holds a rally 25,000-30,000 people show up, whereas when McCain holds one he only draws 10,000-15,000. ... The Republican spokesman replied, 'That's because McCain's supporters are at work!'"