Backtesting is good research and will give you many insights. One thing I learned on Tradestation, ten years ago, is that a system optimized on 1 year of houry barz will not work in the future, but the same system with its parameters adjusted for 13 years of data did great. I watched it (sim) for the next year continue the upward equity curve. The other one went flat. Never tried it with real money, and it's all fun and games until you start moving real money. Something changes, and I think it's more than just your psychology.
On most days and on most markets, The open2low is greater than the high2open. If we plot the cumulative ratio then it’s downhill. Therefore … as an intraday trader, The money is more often made shorting It has already been said that the positive returns are made overnight. Not the cumulative ratio but add one if (high-open)/(open-low) > 1 else subtract one. That's even worse for (high - close) / (close - low) > 1 Which means ... Most often ... We're likely to push lower than up, Then reverse and close near the high. That's the power of the V That's without the overnight gaps. Lagging by +7x just by close - open.
Buy if above Weekly and Daily open. Sell if below Weekly and Daily open. Close position EOD Works better one the 1h
Yes. The Opening Range Breakout has a better return. The devil is in the details but ... The key is to min the DD and increase the average return per trade. One way to do it is to take only one trade. If the day is going to be strong then it will not revisit the open. If it does then scratch the trade, don't fight and tomorrow is another day. Livermore said we can't make money everyday in the market. If we can avoid the DD from choppy days then we're one step ahead.
Ok, I’ll stop posting shit. Tomorrow new 150k TST combine. Goal is to 3x in a month then move to XFA. None of what I backtested changed my approach. For the better or for the worse. LFG YOLO KISS I’ll still be there in 4yrs Just taught me that nothing works, One need to generate 10 gross profit for 1 net. Pyramiding increases both drawdowns and returns. Mean reversion has higher WR but lower RR. Taking loss can decrease performance. Momentum has likely 30% Win Rate. One guy (Seykota) said … If you don’t like whipsaw. Don’t trade. Or it’s Dunn ? Dunno … Ah yeah and volume is meaningless.
Well … Actually I’ll be trading something like this. Most of the time the 1hr is the most interesting, Might look to leave the position open until EOD, Or take profit at a max based on previous day. Might backtest the ORB some more, But I don’t have much data on tradingview. Let’s see. I think I’ll trade NQ. Looks better for Momentum. Look for 100pts profit and 50pts loss / day. Profit Target is 9,000$ Max DrawDown is 4,500$. 3X