6 months TopStep 50K Net Profits

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Sekiyo, Feb 6, 2020.

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  1. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    8 situations, Previous, and last outcome: Machine picks.
    AAA, A ,A : A
    AAB, A, B : A or B
    ABA, B, A : A or B
    ABB, B, B : B
    BAA, B, B : B
    BAB, B, A : A or B
    BBA, A, B : A or B
    BBB, A, A : A

    This way the machine is able to outguess you.
    53% of the time instead of pure randomness (50%)

    This is simple frequency of sequence patterns.
    https://norvig.com/mayzner.html

    Also we can see the letter "e" is the most likely letter.
    Then if we have to guess a two letter sequence knowing "e" is the first,
    We can then look for the most likely two letter sequence beginning with "e"

    It's said :
    1. er
    2. en
    3. es
    4. ed

    A quote from a famous guys say something like:
    You won't need more than 4 variables, parameters.

    The above machine has 3 variables,
    Each variable has 2 states.
    2^3 = 16 outcomes.
    It's a lot already.

    I used to think about markets this way,
    2 variables: Order flow and liquidity,
    2 States: Negative or Positive.

    4 outcomes:
    + Order flow and + Liquidity -> Bullish
    + Order flow and - Liquidity -> Neutral
    - Order flow and + Liquidity -> Neutral
    - Order flow and - Liquidity -> Bearish
    --> 50% of the time the market is not trending.

    But one can take highs and lows for example:
    2 Variables: High and Low
    3 States: Inferior, Equal, Superior

    8 outcomes :
    Inferior High Inferior Low
    Inferior High Equal Low
    Inferior High Superior Low
    Equal High Inferior Low
    Equal High Equal Low
    Equal High Superior Low
    Superior High Inferior Low
    Superior High Equal Low
    Superior High Superior Low
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
    #331     Mar 29, 2020
    helmethermit likes this.
  2. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    Tradovate is a bit buggy.
    The DOM is not working anymore.

    upload_2020-3-30_9-40-36.png

    I can create order via Chart but not DOM.
    They've updated it and now it takes forever to scroll it.
    And when you scrolled it it kept coming back to the last price.
    But it looks like they've kind of solved it. But the scroll is tougher now...

    I don't like their Charts neither.
    Mostly because you can't go forward.
    There is kind of a wall so it's constraining.

    Also it consume too much computational resources

    Not a good web platform really.
    Limited, Buggy and heavy on resources.

    But it’s free.
     
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2020
    #332     Mar 30, 2020
  3. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    This morning, I set two limit orders,
    One @ 2600, One @ 2500.

    Then we reach 2500.
    Remove the limit, hope to shop lower @ 2475.
    Turned out that 2495 was the low before the "rally".

    Then we reach 2575.
    I decide to sell 1 contract. Too early ... Get out
    Then I believe we won't reach 2600 so I finally sell another contract.
    We move up. up. up. up. Slowly but we finally reach 2600. Sell another contract.

    Average price 2587.25

    Risky but I believe the price is due for a little correction at least.
    2500 looks like a good target but I play it safe. I go for the POC just below @ 2555.

    The rest is history yet to unfold.
     
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2020
    #333     Mar 30, 2020
  4. FTDK

    FTDK

    So you are short 2 contracts now? What is your average fill price?
     
    #334     Mar 30, 2020
  5. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    Average price 2587.25

    It does retrace less and less.
    It has to break.

    On the upside or on the downside ...
     
    #335     Mar 30, 2020
  6. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    Someone is DOSing Elitetrader.com
    Isn't it ? It doesn't want to load on my phone.
     
    #336     Mar 30, 2020
  7. deltaf0rce

    deltaf0rce

    Sorry trying to understand where you stand these days on this...how many days are you in and what's your balance now? I can't make out very easily from your screenshots, sorry
     
    #337     Mar 30, 2020
  8. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    Step 2 - 3rd day
    5 out of 9k
     
    #338     Mar 30, 2020
  9. deltaf0rce

    deltaf0rce

    you're trying to make 9k and have already made 5k?
     
    #339     Mar 30, 2020
  10. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    Yes.

    Step 2 is 10 days min. Goal 9k
     
    #340     Mar 31, 2020
    deltaf0rce likes this.
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