This is some payoff functions from the 137 trades in the record so far. I just make 20k random combinations from it. Add 2, Add 4, Add 8 ... The minimum is 18.2k The maximum is 13.8k Imagine losing 18.2k over 8 trades LMAO Great question, mate. I use them to secure tiny profit. Learnt it's actually used to protect against large risks. TST is a different game I believe. We play different rules than those trading real money. But it's still a nice experience even though it's a waist of time. As you said ... Just trade one micro with little to no capital and done. But seriously I don't see me trading pennies. So I try to get 10k from TST. I believe I need a hard daily loss limit because otherwise I could smoke it in a day. Gotta learn to manage risk. I've read a lot about it but seriously it is visceral. Got to learn to handle sounds practices. Days in and days out. A habit. Guess I could replicate my trading in real. And the more I trade the more I could I believe. I can be as reckless as I am with real money seriously. That's my problem. Up to a point I just lose my head. Not a hardcore gambler neither. 1% or even 0.01% is enough to demolish anything. Gotta learn some basics principles. Like Min Risk and Max Rewards. Put them into practice. It's said "Easy to make money, harder to keep" Indeed. It's crystal clear. I do take losses. But sometimes it just get too big to fail. And that's where I lose control. Sometimes I just run away. I am like a baby playing with an atomic bomb. Gotta learn risk management. Taking risk is easy. Survival is a bit tougher ... Sometimes the market reverses. Goes from -1k to -100. But I want that +1 tick. This is hilarious. I know ... Call it whatever you want. Then I blow up and I feel like really stupid. TST has a reset button. But life won't throw you back your savings. Yup, high win rate often hides huge risk. I just try to water the big ones into a zillion of tiny ones. So the average looks a little bit sexier. Kidding ... ^^ Gotta learn to take losses. To fraction my bankroll into small portions. Cause if I lose it all today. There will be no tomorrow. So better leave aside some shots for later. Maybe for the better. Enjoy !
These are the first 15 Quantile. So the problem is 8% of my trades. Everything else is below 500$ which is Ok.
Think I am done for today. Done way more than usual. Trading smaller targets. Shorter term. The volatility wasn't always there. Great day
Maybe its a good idea to practice with market replay at times when you are not trading the current market? This way you can also practice to trade low volatility periods. Remember this high volatility is very unusual and will disappear in a matter of weeks/months. Then we will go back to a trend of maybe just 10 - 20 ES points or less for the entire session.
"Buy rising stocks and sell falling stocks" Often we (Myself included) laugh at this saying. It's because we do prefer to buy low than high. But the only time you can be wrong by buying a rising stock, Is to buy right at the top. It's actually a low probability event. Most of the time you get more upside than downside. Now buying low means to buy the near bottom of a falling stocks. It's harder. Because it's a low probability event. And most of the time the downside is greater.
That's my main problem. I am short when I should be long and inversely. Were successful taking longs in a bearish environment. But it could be even better by to shorting downtrend and buying uptrend. If we look a entries relative to the development of the price, Then we can clearly see that the absolute downside outweigh the upside. Because small retrace can't beat the trend. So by being contrarian you're taking huge risk. More often than not. Sure ... You can catch the absolute bottom. But you won't catch the absolute bottom without scares. I myself don't hold positions long enough. So even if I catch the absolute bottom I won't profit from it. I better go with the trend. Take less absolute risk and I'll be better off. GO WITH THE F_CKING TREND ! It's wiser Probability and Payoff wise. So it's a win win situation.
trying to short 2540 Even if I believe we've kinda reached the bottom at 2500 Currently we're still making lower lows. But we're slowly bottoming as the downward trend gets flatter.