5min/1h TrendFollowing on ESTX50, SMI, & GBL

Discussion in 'Journals' started by KS96, Aug 23, 2006.

  1. KS96

    KS96

    ESTX50 out 1 @ 93, -24 pts.
     
    #951     Nov 3, 2006
  2. me1969

    me1969

    One ESTX50 long over the weekend?
    So bullish in this market?
     
    #952     Nov 3, 2006
  3. KS96

    KS96

    My stop in 30mins hasn't been hit.... I won't argue
    with it.
     
    #953     Nov 3, 2006
  4. KS96

    KS96

    Trades closed on Fri 3/Nov/06:
    ---------------------------------
    ESTX50: -17 pts, 5 RTs.
    DAX: no trades.
    SMI: +116 pts, 4 RTs.
    GBL: no trades.
    ---------------------------------

    Sleeping overnight:
    -------------------
    1x ESTX50 long from 3996 (-5)

    [
    USD.CHF out 40k @ 1.2474, +20 pips, +80 CHF
    Here is the rest I am currently holding:
    1000xCTCC @ 0.085 (-0.055)
    400x EZEN @ 1.85 (-0.15)
    350x FORD @ 5.43 (-0.41)
    400x KHD @ 5.35 (+0.15)
    300x MSLV @ 3.09 (+0.97)
    200x PLAY @ 11.03 (+2.33)
    500x SAMC @ 1.00 (-0.12)
    400x SFE @ 2.34 (+0.11)
    100x SGMO @ 5.61 (-0.12)
    200x SNUS @ 5.06 (+0.52) + 200 @ 5.61 (-0.03)
    100x WNR @ 23.53 (+0.86)
    USD.CAD long 50k @ 1.1254 (+43 pips)
    USD.CAD long 50k @ 1.1296 (+1 pip)
    AUD.USD short 40k @ 0.7743 (+41 pips)
    AUD.USD short 35k @ 0.7732 (+30 pips)
    ]

    *** new equity high @ $24,328 (+87.14%)

    (I believe something is wrong with my IB
    account, since my previous statements and
    trades don't add up. Specifically, I am missing
    364CHF. I opened a trouble ticket and waiting...)
     
    #954     Nov 3, 2006
  5. KS96

    KS96

    Weekly summary, week ending on Fri 27/Oct/06:
    ---------------------------------
    ESTX50: +40 pts, 29 RTs.
    DAX: 0 pts, 1 RT.
    SMI: +121 pts, 16 RTs.
    GBL: -70 pts, 1 RT.
    ---------------------------------
    Account balance (22:19 CET): $24,328

    Weekly return: +$1,468 +6.42%
    Total return: +$11,328 +87.14%
     
    #955     Nov 3, 2006
  6. KS96

    KS96

    That should be 3/Nov/06... sorry.

    I did some rough calculations. It's around 10 weeks that this journal is going on, and I returned +87%, that's a +6.5% per week on average compounded. In comparison, Larry Williams was compounding with around +9.5% per week on average when he turned 10k to 1.1m in 52 weeks back in 1987.

    Now, with my rate of coumpounding, I need 69 weeks to turn 13k to 1 million, that is 59 weeks to go ;-) Dream on...
     
    #956     Nov 4, 2006
  7. KS96

    KS96

    Also, since my return comes from trading a wide range of products (Eurex Futures, Forex, and Stocks), in different timeframes, and with several techniques, I don't think that I just got lucky. I took my lots of losses, small and big ones, as well. I see no reason why my rate of compounding will go down. It most probably will go up, because there must be some learning curve that I am riding, or not?

    Here is the breakdown of the returns per week:

    1/9 +6.1% (1 week + 3 days, started on 23/8)
    8/9 +2.2%
    15/9 +11.1%
    22/9 +3.3%
    29/9 +8.6%
    6/10 +19.1%
    13/10 +14.9%
    20/10 -5.5% (vacation week, remote trading)
    27/10 +0.5% (slow come back after vacation)
    3/11 +6.4%

    I would appreciate any thoughts on this matter.
     
    #957     Nov 4, 2006
  8. Vince1

    Vince1

    Just a thought: did you calculate the maximum leverage you ever used?

    With a 3x leverage the challenge is the eventual big drawdowns:


    [​IMG]


    NB. To avoid the psychological damage of big drawdowns, Schindler Trading cut its leverage by half in April 2005.
     
    #958     Nov 4, 2006
  9. KS96

    KS96

    I never went on margin for stocks so far.
    The most capital I've used is 62% of my cash.

    As for futures & forex combined, I try to keep
    my initial margin requirements at a max of 50% of
    my net liquidation, although intraday I have
    stretched this up to 80%. Initial margin, not
    maintenance.

    My last drawdown (during the last 2-3 weeks)
    hit an intraday low of less than 10%, and only
    6% on a close basis.

    I don't think I am taking excessive risks, what do
    you think?
     
    #959     Nov 4, 2006
  10. Vince1

    Vince1

    I would calculate the leverage as the ratio of the economic value of the positions to the available capital. Say 3 long ESTX50:

    3 * 3991 * 10 = 119,730 euros

    On a 20k euros account this is a 6:1 leverage (assuming no offsetting position).
    On a directional trade, it is not considered conservative trading...

    Now, as Soros said, leverage is a two edged sword. It works both on the risk side and the return side.

    If, on the risk side, you have a money management plan to handle a loosing streak you'll be fine++
     
    #960     Nov 4, 2006