Flip a coin, heads you double your money, tails you loose. What are the odds of getting 25 heads in a row.
I just read a great applicable quote the other day: "There is no such thing as a 50 million dollar publicly traded company."
Would you have started this thread if DTV was flat or down right now? Do you think that being up 20% in this rising market is anything extraordinary? Will you remember to come back here and declare defeat in Aug 07 when DTV hasn't doubled? Good luck doubling your money in an extended bear market (I'm sure we will have at least one during the next 25 years) Why not wait until you've at least doubled your 5k ONCE before revealing your amazing strategy and bragging about how smart you are?
I wanted a discussion, not a war. I'm branded a braggart and an idiot, so be it. Dangling a thread like this on ET is like dangling red meat to hungry wolves. I never believed for a minute I am smarter than the market. Good fortune plays a big part in it. I'm interested in your ideas, MAK. If you want, PM me. Away from the eyes of the ET public.
While the numbers you cite seem ambitous, (thats known as an understatement) I think the premise is aworthy goal, and encourage to you to set out about it this way: Do a search for stocks that have doubled in the past year. Do the same for several prior years, or longer if you like and the searching isn't too exaustive. Then analyze them to denote traits that you can readily recognize and distinguish, and have a strong probability of being able to continue to in the future. Then set out to find the up and coming opportunities, they are there,waiting. I would suggest culling out stocks that are low-priced, and stick with those aboce a certain price threshold, such as 10- 15 at the least. Be encouraged, and do not be detracted by the naysayers. Take a look at Merck, a double in a year, huge stock, plenty of room for large buyers / positions. GM, same thing, only lower market cap, still big stock, huge revenues, (200B last year). They are out there, the opportunites. And what if your efforts fall way short? What if you only make 10, or even 5 M. Still worthwhile. GL and let me know your progress, both on the research and getting started.
Thanks Russell. I've seen previous post of yours and you seem very level headed. I didn't post to get approval. The most violent of the ETers are the brokest. I was there once. I didn't snipe at other's success. I studied and emulated them. The way to back test this is to get back issues of a certain financial publication and go forward. That is all I base my picks on. They do the research for me. Why do people care so much if I make or if I fail? It's my cash which I can well afford to risk. If I ever got to 1 million from this, I would look to amend the strategy as I know slippage and execution will come into play in a big way.
When I was down 3 points, I thought I was a moron too. My rule was to not touch the position until August 2007. I figured, good bye 5K. This was over before it ever began. And if it does double, do I exit or wait until August as the rule stipulates. Would this still be viable if it went up 100% then retraced 50% when it was time to sell? Now its a matter of timing.
These posts just keep getting better: Profitprophet 09-16-06 05:32 AM I've taken $4732 and in a little over seven years profited over $5,356,888.42 including today. The average is 5% compounded monthly, which would be higher except for the execution details. Becoming a member of an exchange is an option, one I am not considering now. IF one has the proper methodology to trade a particular market and IF the market one trades fits their overall personality, then one will be successful. That is a given. After a while, making money becomes routine. And now we have: Profitprophet: 10-27-06 07:06 PM Because the odds are greatly against success. I can stomach a loss of 5K. I can't stomach a loss of 50K. What most losing traders fail to recognize is that they take on too much of a position and not fully compehending the true risks involved. The goal is not to get rich quick. It's to see if this strategy will work. Check on DTV in August 2007 from 18.60. If it doubles or close to, I'm a genuis. If not, a shithead. Let time decide. My vote is for shithead.
I was one trade short. My luck ran out after the 24th successful trade and the 25th trade went to zero so now I have to start again.