54 consecutive winning trades

Discussion in 'Politics' started by mrmarket, Mar 25, 2004.

  1. Stop the presses! Stop the presses!! $$$MR. MARKET$$$ now has 54 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. The man is unbelievable. I am ripping through the stock market like a gorilla through marshmallows. Today I sold ASCA at 31.99. That is an 18% gain over my purchase price of 27 on February 10, 2004. Over the same period, the S&P 500 was down 4.7%. While $$$MR. MARKET$$$ is making money, the market is losing money. I am HUGE!!! I hit my target in only 44 days. That’s an annualized return of 149%. Can you do that? You? YOU?? YOU???!!!!

    I am the Greatest of all time, (crowd sing along) I am the Man, the Myth, the Legend. I am Montego Bay in Belmar, the rest of you are Key Largo. I am McDonald’s, you are Burger King. I am Hertz, you are Avis. I am Rickey Henderson, you are Lou Brock. I am Barry Bonds, you are Sammy Sosa. I am the New England Patriots, you are the Carolina Panthers. I am the Red Sox, you are the Yankees! Wait a minute, never mind about that one.

    The best news is that another $$$MR. MARKET$$$ pick is coming soon. Who can hardly wait? You? You?? YOU??!! I am HUGE!!

    Now give me my props. You must tell me what you think of me or else I will not make anymore stock picks.

    Posted: 10 Feb 2004 02:54 pm Post subject: ASCA ==> the Valentine's Day Winner

    The bells are ringing. The sirens are blaring. The smoke is rising. In the middle of a 5 alarm fire? Nope..guess again. The cocktail waitresses are spilling out of their uniforms as they hand $$$MR. MARKET$$$ a freezing cold martini filled to the brim with Thor’s hammer vodka. The casino thinks that if they ply $$$MR. MARKET$$$ and fellow Titan Omega with alcohol, they will get them to make wagers so that they fall victim to the house chicanery. Little do they know that the Titans eat casinos for breakfast. Even a run of bad luck can be fixed on Tennessee ave with a little hot water to stop the oil.

    Bet Bet Ba Ba Ba Ba BET! Every one loves to win! Remember you must bet big to win big! The casinos give away money if you have the skill to take it. That is how they build suck large edifices, gaming has returned to the adult play ground themes and the profits are returning as well. Wanna Bet?

    Today I bought ASCA (Ameristar Casino) at 27. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 31.28. Here’s why I like ASCA:

    ASCA’s stock is up about 240% in the last 12 months yet it sports a paltry PE of only 14.70.

    The economy is coming back and people have more disposable income. What better way to use your “disposable” income than to dispose it at a casino. That’s right, throw those Jacksons away. You didn’t need them anyway.

    Ameristar Casinos, Inc. is an innovative, Las Vegas-based gaming and
    entertainment company known for its distinctive, quality-conscious hotel-casinos and value orientation. Led by President and Chief Executive Officer Craig H. Neilsen, the organization's roots go back nearly five decades to a tiny roadside casino in the high plateau country that borders Idaho and Nevada.

    Look…there’s nothing special about Vegas or Atlantic City, other than the fact that people will go there to piss away their money. Buy building new casinos in places closer to healthy Midwest population centers, Ameristar is siphoning off existing gamblers and and creating new gamblers. Today, the Midwest's riverboat gaming market is growing at a faster clip, in double digits, than its land-based counterparts in Las Vegas and Atlantic City, N.J. More folks opt to drive a couple of hours to spend their leisure money than hop a plane and travel to some distant locale.

    In December 2000, Ameristar spent $475 million to buy two Missouri facilities from Station Casinos Inc and they haven’t looked back. That more than doubled Ameristar's size and sent revenue soaring. It changed the entire company. It gave the company very high quality assets at a low price. And it also improved prospects for earnings and cash-flow growth. Station needed to fold and leave town in the wake of an ethics probe by the Missouri Gaming Commission and Ameristar is the benefactor of all of this. It was a kind of distress sale situation where Station really had to get out of the state.

    Goodbye Station..hello Ameristar! Now they are growing and growing. Once those suckers, I mean people, arrive, the key is to keep them around longer so they'll spend more cash at the slot machines or crap tables. Casinos offer plenty of amenities: entertainment, fine dining, hotels. ASCA believes they have the highest-quality facility with very attractive nongaming amenities.

    Another bonus for Ameristar: Though demand for gaming continues to grow, supply is fixed. Unlike Nevada, where it's an unlimited license jurisdiction, many of these riverboat markets have already given out the number of legislatively mandated licenses, Jordan said. There are no new properties coming in.

    Look at the revenue growth!! In 2001, they did 627 million. In 2002, they did 698 million and last year they did 782 million! That 13% growth over the last couple of years is kicking the crap out of the palaces in Vegas. Income is surging with it as they done about 20% growth in net EPS over the last couple of years. With the growing economy continuing unabated, $$MR. MARKET$$$ sees this growth continuing. My prediction is $881 million in revenues for 2004 which would get them profits of $2.07/share. Try applying the industry average PE of 33 to these earnings. You get a stock price of $68.31. Now we’re talking!! The 11 analysts covering ASCA think it will earn $1.97/share. These nerds just don’t understand the inescapable grip of gambling. Just ask Fred Flinstone and Arnold the Paperboy. Bet bet bet ba ba bet bet BET!!!

    Why do I think this growth will continue? What about competition?

    At the end of last year, Ameristar KC smoted competition they now have 37.28% share in a four boat market. The current numbers are record highs. Ameristar St. Charles/St. Louis "led all state casinos with 12.8% month-over-month growth and $22.6 million in gross revenues." Ameristar KC finished the month "with $18.76 million in revenue, its third best month ever. Sources say the places are packed with gamblers with people waiting on table games.

    Other reasons why I think ASCA is undervalued:

    Price to cash flow stands at 6.4 vs. industry average of 8.5. Based on this metric alone, ASCA’s share price should be around 35.

    Return on Equity is a scorching 19.5% vs. the industry average of 8%. With cash flow at around 100 million, they can whack down their debt pretty quickly if they had to. With gross margins in the area of 47%, their growing revenues will move quickly to the bottom line.

    Last week ASCA announced fourth quarter 2003 results that exceeded
    management's previously issued guidance. (Do you detect a pattern here?? Yes??? Good.) Ameristar also announced record results for the year ended December 31, 2003.

    Here were some operational Highlights

    * Number one in gaming market share in all of our markets for
    both the fourth quarter of 2003 and the full year 2003, and at the
    same time improved our operating income and EBITDA margins year- over-year for both periods.

    * ASCA led markets in the introduction of coinless slot technology at our Ameristar branded properties with approximately 75% of the slot
    machines coinless at the end of 2003. They expect to have approximately
    100% of the slot machines at these properties coinless by the end
    of 2004. Who wants to handle those coins anyway?? Blecchhh….do you know where people might be putting those things?? Bogus!!

    And this is what the boss said:

    "During 2003, we continued to successfully execute our key operating
    strategies designed to enhance the overall excitement of our facilities and improve our profitability," said Craig H. Neilsen, Chairman and CEO. " We believe our record financial results for 2003 validate the effectiveness of our business strategies and strength of the Ameristar brand. We believe we are well positioned for continued financial success and future expansion."

    This is not some high tech stock or biotech research company that may hype on its future blockbuster potentials. One can actually see their business by visiting its casinos. These places are crowded on weeknights. Compare this to a Tuesday night in Atlantic City!

    For the year ending December 31, 2004, we currently estimate operating
    income of $144.0 million to $154.0 million, EBITDA of $215.0 million to
    $225.0 million (given anticipated depreciation expense of $71.0 million),
    interest expense of $57.1 million and diluted earnings per share of $1.94 to $2.16. Ok..so where is it going to be? Closer to what the ANALysts say or will they smash these sandbagged numbers in a growing economy?

    Want to see some distressing news?

    St. Charles, Mo., July 29, 2002–A slot player at Ameristar Casino St. Charles hit the jackpot Monday, July 22, 2002, with a whopping $679,353 prize.

    The winner, who elected to remain anonymous, was playing a 25-cent, three-coin Triple Diamond Wheel of Gold machine at 3:15 p.m. on the first level of the casino when all the right symbols lined up perfectly.

    I’m not worried….he’ll be back.

    Anyway..happy VD to all you lovers out there. I hope you get to spread as much VD love as is possible this year.

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

  2. It takes a big man to admit he was wrong and close out his losing trades...oh wait, you don't do that...

    Okay, Okay, so you are saying that if I NEVER close out a losing trade, then I can always have 100% winners and then I CAN BE HUGE TOO???!!!!

    Thnks Mr M, I'm gonna do it!!! :D
  3. gms


    It's at 33.10 now. Too bad you got out too early today while the price was still rising. How much are your losing positions down concurrently? Thanks for posting the update.

    Speaking of which, I notice everytime there's a rally, that's when you come to life around here. It's like that classic Broadway musical about the little Scottish town of Brigadoon that comes to life for one day once every hundred years, except you are...
  4. fan27


    Hey MR. MARKET. What do you think of Shuffle Master (SHFL). My Ex girlfriend bought it several years ago for about $5.00. It's over $46.00 right not. I guess she is "HUGE". Shouldn't have broken up with her.:mad:
  5. dbphoenix


    YEA!! The circus is back in town :D
  6. Just for fun I backtested a system similar to Mr Market over
    the last 12 years for NYSE stocks.

    Here are the rules:

    Choose a RANDOM stock
    Stock is up 50%+ in last 6 months (momentum)
    Price is over $20
    Daily volume over 500,000
    1% of account put into each trade (So I can have 100 revenue streams)

    15% target
    ** NO STOP **

    ====Mr Market style RESULTS====

    100% win rate! Surprise! NOT!
    80 consecutive winners!!! Big surprise...NOT!


    ===== Now the REAL results ========

    20% of revenue streams got "stuck" in bad trades.
    If forced to close out positions, ACTUAL RETURN
    for 12 years is a mere 112%

    But wait!! How is that possible with 80 consecutive winners?!?!?
    Thats even MORE than Mr Market!!!
    I AM HUGE!!

    I hope this illustrates why his bragging is completely WORTHLESS.




    Poor Mr Market only has a measely 54! LMAOO!! :D


  8. mind


    hide the kids. it is showtime again. put out the beer, but not the cheese. :)





    mr market is the ping and so many love to here their own little: "pong".
    that spells: entertainment. one thing i forgot: popcorn.

  9. Mr. Market,

    Congrats on your streak, if that's what floats your boat!:) The ? I have is in 2 parts. Are you stating that this 18% gain is the sum total gain for your entire portfolio thus far, indicating you had all available $ allocated to said trade? If so Congrats again, if not then the % return is much less, probably in the low single digits.

    As for the second ? concerning the annualized return. The gain would only be equatable to that, were the entire amount of funds allocated to the strategy, & you ended the year with that, would it not? Since the year is far from over, & I'm certain that you don't commit all capital to each individual trade. The ? you posed, "Can you do that?", isn't pertinent now is it? Since you havn't accomplished this either.

    In your response, please feel free to clarify any misunderstanding on my part about this. Otherwise I fail to see the relevance in your post concerning these % claims, as it relates to the bigger picture. By bigger picture I mean overall portfolio or trading capital returns, not just individual trades.

    Have a Nice Day!
    God Bless You!
  10. dbphoenix


    Only if those are his rules. Are they?
    #10     Mar 25, 2004