EURAUD clear trendline break on weekly chart. gold etc up on bad friday data, suggesting more stimulation expected by markets. Looking for buy signal.
magic strength of aud. AUD stocks tanked 1.5% yet aud keeping strong. Chinese look genuinely worried about US default. Sure they have good intelligence so odds of that happening are higher than market thinks. if this happens... then oblifgation of us against others will be nullified, however, reverse may not be the case. US army makes all the difference... Finally some return on investment. I am sure there is some tiny print clause that will make it legal. USD will go up, interest rates up, cash will be king. Stocks down. Still zeroing on my next target. Last 10 trades 6 scores. Worst drawdown 0.2 risk so far. Too good but in line with my theory that 100% win rate should be goal.
I was fooled last week with strenght of the rally and was looking only for continuation. Turned out false. Cycles do not support immediate recovery. Downside is back. My debt indicator EURCHF supports that as reached new all time low. eurjpy also same direction. There is possible scenario something like GBP when dropped out of euro. This time would be EUR.
eurchf 1.11 ! eurjpy close to low. high pressure on borrowers, business and property. No evidence of capitulation yet. so trend will continue. tons of job losses & movemet to india. ibm will do well until this continues. hovewer their tax and other arrrangemets may channel profits here and there and not in higher share price. useless to bet. I play for longerterm downturn.
All in all out or compound? It's difficult to do both depending upon the strategy. Usually only 1 will work.
i moved more in cash couple of days ago in my longerterm system I run which turn out good. Got a sell signal a week ago but skipped it due to work commitmnets and my technique did not allow me to enter. Still signal reinforces what i am doing is correct. So benefited only thru going to cash more. Now around 92% in cash or near cash. My win rate remains high 14/16. Not all trades belonging to this thread. Will be cruical for return in my other longerterm system to decide when to get back in. I am expecting this downturn to last longer with recession etc.
my plan is to when say buy, then wait for price to confirm my suspitions for up and then add. I use stops. Taking off the table bit by bit has proven not to be that good. Once there is 50% or less position left in, reward is not that great anymore for price going in my direction and I simply dump remainder. Takig profits at the right time takes considerable effot for me at least. I am thinking now taking profits off should be more justified and not just exiting on preset levels.
Swing system documenting here is new and still finetunning. Done statistics of entries and misses. Got sell signal on 27/7 but becuse I enter on limit order, no chance of entering. Missed enough trades now to question viability of entry on limit after signal arrives. I may just have to bite the bullet and enter at market on the signal in the future with intended size. Buying on dips and vice versa does not make sense to me as best trades will have smallest or no bet and all losers will always be with max bet. This will decrease bet size and increase targets to keep risk under control. But will get in all signals.
heh, get me off your "fade this loser" list, please Consider my win rate - above 90% Even with small movementsw in cash due to sell signal, i made (have not lost) pretty reasonable money. I think markets will go down further but will start buying today. in my longterm system sitting on, for me, large 'profit' as I moved in cash.