50% ?

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by traitor786, Mar 7, 2013.

  1. So you say it is luck,

    Intresting,

    Lets say that the coin toss was a bit different,
    Lets say that every time you win you make 50% and every time you loose you make 40%

    What would the out come be then for you having the luck you have.
    Is that enough of an edge to beat the force that takes our money in a 50 50 ?

    Ill do you one better and remove the fees.

    Do YOU win over a long period of TIME ? Or is it possible we have taken the most basic of ideas for granted ?

    Work it out let me know, use a real coin please.
     
    #41     Mar 20, 2013
  2. Ill get back to the above challenge,

    Lets assume that the math behind this Sim is right. What do you notice.
    The first thing I notice is that lowering or highering the initial deposit makes a huge difference !

    One would assume it is linear, It is not you can at times make more with 10 k then you can with 50 k !

    The site is related to options, maybe I am missing something.
    can any one make sense of this ? Is it possible that if some one loosing was simply trading a different amount of money they could be winners ?
     
    #42     Mar 20, 2013
  3. In physics the idea of probability is calculated differently.

    This is due to the nature of quantum physics,

    The interference caused by waves makes the typical bell curve have extream waves going back and forth, this curve can be enveloped in a typical bell curve. but it is very different . "half" the points are given a value of 0 !

    How does this relate to the market ? how does it not is the question.

    I used to look at charts zoomed out the result was volume bars were threads and a "mess". While I was adjusting, I did notice that at one point I saw a bell curve when I looked at every second bar. inbetween each bar were lower bars.

    It kind of reminded me of the idea of squaring probability.

    Probably nothing, but who knows, good to note while I wait for my data set.
     
    #43     Mar 21, 2013
  4. The numbers are low but its a mini account so multiply the profits by 10.

    Also keep in mind there still is 2 trades open one of which is in the red currently.

    This strategy works by pushing risk to the last trade. Im not sure how the loss got in there but it was my first time, generally all trades should be profitable and the last one is 50 50 or maybe a 33-77 based on the above mentioned numbers that were given.

    I really hope some on can explain me where the 33% came from

    Ill post the end results of the last trade ONLY IF THEY ARE POSITIVE.
    This means that these profits and loses cant be put towards my total profit and losses.
     
    #44     Mar 26, 2013
  5. Here are the end results, admittedly I may have gotten a bit lucky but Im not too sure about that yet. Also I think I may have thought of a way to hedge the risk of the last trade.

    The whole system seems like it is high risk so far I do not think I can grow the account fast enough to cover the risk of the bad trade that will soon come

    Either way it is no longer about finding bottoms or tops It is more general which may be harder

    Remember x 10 the p and l has it is a .1 contract

    The -8$ trade bugs me, still not sure where it came from.

    'i call it the hershey kiss !
     
    #45     Mar 27, 2013
  6. vinc

    vinc

    actually what are you trying to prove with this outcome / these results/? might be my reading comprehension sucks in which case I apologize :)
     
    #46     Mar 27, 2013
  7. Its my writing, I am sure there is no doubt there.

    Its simply to see if I can avoid the doom that is sure to come. The results compared to my previous trades are almost inverse !

    The goal is to stay positive at all costs.
     
    #47     Mar 27, 2013
  8. vinc

    vinc

    yes, this much I can understand, but by doing what? can you be more specific as to what you are trying to implement ? i just don't understand how you arrived at these results..
    again, i'm counting on your patience here :)
    sure, we all don't want to drown :)
    thanks
     
    #48     Mar 27, 2013
  9. I was wondering Where the 33.33% came from if we have a 1:2 risk to reward ratio. Below..



    Vinc, I did not find anything special here. What I have learnt so far tells me that we have little control over profits if we play fare.

    But we can delay risk, Ill try to find the thread where I wrote about it.

    In general, what we have here is similar to a martingale system. They are all the same; delay risk till reality comes back and hits you in the face lol.

    Here, instead, I used the market itself to determine my max lose.
    It should fail in trending markets, but maybe If I can handle the risk I can change to a higher time frame until price looks like its always trending.


    It may help if price allows you measure.

    The last trade of 50 could of easily ended up the other way. I'm not sure if I would of had the patience. Luckily I fell asleep lol.




    :D
     
    #49     Mar 27, 2013
  10. OK so here is an update of my P and L included here is some stuff here from my last P and L. This is the total. Trades based on the this strategy.

    Keep in mind they are 1/10 th of a contract. so multiply the profit by 10

    I was or for a while but i am back. I put in some trades last week i think and then the long weekend came along and i did not exit them. I held on too long and the position was bigger then was supposed to be as I developed a bias's
     
    #50     Apr 4, 2013