50% retracement in major commodity prices

Discussion in 'Trading' started by PohPoh, Aug 9, 2008.

  1. over the next 6-12 months...

    That would put the Goldman index around 500 and crude at around 80...

    Anyone see this massive unwinding as being more likely than not?
     
  2. July saw the biggest decline in the CRB in 28 years . . . At the very least, I would suggest that there will be some side-ways consolidation and a bit of a retracement.
     
  3. Yes..true...
    But I'm starting to think Surf's $600 gold prediction may come over the next 6-12..
    and along with that you see $80 crude...
    And you have gold gaining on crude in this scenario..

    That would be good to get the weak boys out of the market, short specs calling tops and feeling good about themselves...

    And then we resume the 30 fold increase (that I'm projecting) in the oil/metals/grains markets over the next 5-10 years...
    That would put crude around $350 and gold around $7500
     
  4. What will collapsing commodity prices do to the Fed expansionary monetary policies?
    When will they grow a pair and push short rates higher and if they don't, what will be the trigger that will blast long rates higher...

    Collosal economic bust environment plus inflation...unprecedented, at least at this stage for the USA..
    The 70's can't hold a candle...
     
  5. Yeah.. the Talking Heads say, "this isn't the 70s", to assuage our fears.

    HELL NO! It's a TON worse...
     
  6. Right..they all fail to mention our current indebtedness..whereas in 1970 we were a creditor nation...

    Plus, most of debt in the 1970 was held domestically by individuals and corporations...

    now it's held by Wally Woo, Asaiko Fukomaki, and Prince Camelherder....

    This is one hell of a puzzle being put together...
    Now where does this sharp piece go?
     
  7. bkveen3

    bkveen3

    People over estimate national debt. Take a look at this link. MOST IMPORTANTLY the first chart on the right side of the page. It shows national debt as percentage of gdp as opposed to just as a raw figure. As you can see when viewed in this more accurate light it is on average now with what it has been almost our entire existence. Don't get me wrong I'm all for balancing the budget and trying to end a deficit. But why is this a problem all of a sudden when we didn't care about it for the last 250 years?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt
     
  8. -That would put crude around $350 and gold around $7500-

    if those numbers pan out then
    that should put silver at $200 or so ?

    :cool:
     
  9. Debt relative to GDP is false accounting. We should measure debt as a percentage of fiscal year federal government revenue.
     
  10. piezoe

    piezoe

    The fall in commodity prices (especially oil) is only temporary. This is an election year. The deep rooted problems in the US economy are worsening and 2009 should be rather dismal with inflation, unemployment, and a very serious downturn in building and real estate. Bank earnings will suffer and contractors will be bankrupted. With falling tax revenues both State and federal budgets will be hard pressed. There will be hiring freezes at the State level. This is a very bad recession we are entering. Once the election is behind us, the borrow and send everyone a check game will no longer be a political necessity and reality will set in. In the meantime we can enjoy this little mini bull run from now to November.
     
    #10     Aug 10, 2008