SPX short 2726.13 (272.44) today. If/when 200-day collapses, will add rapid fire to short to be all IN. (Not set Stop but eye on just above March 13) (2) EurUsd shorted first at 1.2395, initial target 1.0655. If/when rejection at 200-day ema, then leverage goes up big. Stop is mental at few points above central axis of congestion 1.2327. As soon as kiss of death rejection at 200-day is confirmed, Stop will be lowered to just above green bar poking thru' 200-day. First target is obvious @ 1.0655, the axis of the base from which the Euro fired north. 2008 vs 2018 short no contest
Glad to hear you did well. If 200-day breaks, the 2009 low magnet will power up and draw her to the altar again. A risk worth taking as reward:risk ratio is huge. 200-day across the board is KEY.
I'm making no prediction on the market. I have no idea where the S&P will be at the end of the year. I'm just going to say that predictions of the market run up ending for a 25% to 35% drop appear on ET often. If you are an investor, you have to take action to protect your savings. Better to only make 2% on T-bills than take a big loss. However, if you are a full time day trader or position trader and you are loading up on puts, shorting the SPY ETF or futures, it seem like a hard business decision to do that and wait.......and wait......and hope. Even those that made tons of money betting against the mortgage markets in 2008 and 2009, lost a fair amount of money from 2005 on and many had to give up. Timing these drops is very hard. bob
KIIS weekly TL intact = Investors stay L; broken by at least one bar not touching, TP, Correction minm. = 23%, but more likely 38-50-60%
No billionaire or SMART money has ever been able to fool a smart trendline See 2008 crash, now do the same for the bull 2009-2018, when TL breaks get out, if intact stay L
This here is what I see (KISS), what I saw and got me on high alert to go Short .......... not only is Price TL busted but momentum indicators are hammered too. If wrong will cover above March 13. What's super tempting to me is that SPY herself is looking longingly at 224, the weekly 200-ema and the price structure on weekly looks ominous.
There is a pattern that could kick my ass real good - it does bother me. Since Jan 26 the entire structure looks like a triangle. So why is this bad? Because triangles only occur in penultimate position of a wave, which means there is one more UPWAVE. My short will be rejected if this is the case. What the heck do I know? All I'm trying to do is get on the horse of the new trend and ride it. I love new trends. The old uptrend has been going for 9 years and it could go for another 9. But the breaks in momentum and Price are too hard for me to ignore. Another cause for my concern is the massive +ve divergence on Macd daily. Its what has fueled the blast north in May. No doubt the 200-day is trampolene-ing Price.