This idea that you have a 50/50 chance of being right on a trade is bull. A lot of newer traders believe this and wonder why half of their trades dont go their way. It may be true that there is a 50/50 chance that it will go up or down after you enter but the path it takes determines your fate. I think you have to think of your trade as a three part package and state the equation as: does the trade have a 50/50 chance of hitting my target before it hits my stoploss? This is an entirely different proposition. I have heard a lot of people claim that you can enter randomly and make money by proper money management. If this is true then there must be an optimum stop loss to target ratio. Does anybody know of any research along this line?