Hahaha.... Except that I am not claiming that fiat currency "fixes" the problem. I readily acknowledge the possibility of default and bankruptcies instead of pretending I have a magic shield that protects me from it. If I see something that claims to be a billion dollar company yet has unaudited financials, I actually think "gee... Maybe I shouldn't wire them all my money." Yep. Why trying to analyze complex financial matters when you can just say "they jealous". Clearly Warren Buffett is just all broken up about not having bought Bitcoin. Remember folks, Bitcoin investors are serious people that will form the basis of our future world economy. They are not caught up in a speculative mania, ignoring all evidence that does not support their desired conclusions.
It’s very amusing to see smart people (I have no doubt you are smart) overthinking themselves into missing great trades/assets. Maybe just buy some in case you are wrong (which objectively you have been)
You missed the 2 key points, so let me point them out to you, "main reason" and "hate" There are many posters on ET that do not hate bitcoin and also do not own any bitcoin And as much as you look up to Buffet, he's a big time profit-motivated, rent-seeker If you really believe that had he bought 100,000 bitcoins for $1k or less that he'd be hating on bitcoin, then your hate has blinded you to any rational thinking Bitcoin is open source software that was released for free on the internet. You can take the orange pill or the green pill, it's your choice
To be fair to Buffett (or was it Munger?), he said that BOTH Bitcoin and the US Dollar are going to ZERO.
First: I can see why'd you say that, but with Bitcoin below its all time high, it's very clearly a subjective rather than objective call. Second: You're confusing what I'm actually saying. I never said there was no money to be made in a speculative bubble. I don't doubt that there is still money to be made. There were plenty of people who made money on the south sea bubble or on pets.com. But how many of those people just managed to do so out of pure luck? You're assuming someone manages to get out at the right time and manages to do so by something other than pure luck. If I get to assume that, Enron becomes a no-brainer investment where someone could have made 2x their investment in a single year. There's a lot of even blatantly fraudulent companies that become "great investments" if we get to cherry pick dates. Crazy Eddie's could have net you about 10x profit. The obvious argument is that "Bitcoin isn't fraudulent, you know what you have" and that is true, but like a fraudulent company, it is a non-productive asset. The only way you get out more than you put in, is for someone else in the future to get out less than they put in. I'll grant that theoretically that could continue in indefinitely, but the trouble is that it reaches a terminal state. Try this simple thought exercise. Imagine that you had all the Bitcoins in existence and you had spent $1 acquiring them. Someone else comes along and buys them for $10. You you've made $9, but the person who acquired them, has no assurance that someone else in the future will offer even more. Unlike a stock or bond there are no earnings to prop up the price, or compensate someone for holding it. You can imagine a scenario for a while where more and more people keep buying, bidding up the price. Ten, 10x increases is possible, but thirty 10x increases, I think not. Eventually you hit saturation. Eventually new real assets are not being created fast enough to create outsized growth in the value of Bitcoin and it can no longer grow at a rate faster than GDP. At that point it's doomed... Probably before that point. At some point people come to understand that it's only backed by the hope that if will appreciate faster than other assets and as it gets bigger, the odds of that get smaller and smaller. To put it simply as the size of Bitcoin market cap increases it's correlation to other assets increases. (Until people realize it's doomed and run for the exits.)
Exactly. We are traders. Even in Tulipmania,traders managed to get in and out for profit. But I guess even back then people were talking to their neighbours,saying 'can you believe Joe's in that Tulip thing-obvious bubble!' Joe made 50% on his money one year and 160% the next.He then rolled that into the best performing savings account for his family trust and (having terrible handwriting himself) mandated that the trust invest in any new developments in the world of non verbal communication. His family(over the centuries) observed his requests,right down to the epitaph on his gravestone 'An Apple a day,keeps the doctor away'...
But that's like saying some lotto players make a profit. Sure, you can retroactively select a set of people and say "look they made money", but that doesn't make it a worthwhile investment. IMO, the smarter players in the space are those setting themselves up to get a percentage of the transactions win or lose. You don't want to be the guy holding the Bitcoin ETF, you want to be the guy running it. (Assuming you have no moral qualms about pumping a bubble.) Eventually the fad will be over and you'll still have your cut.
I think were in agreement? Theres a cut to be had for anyone who times/plays the trade right? I'm not onboard with the Lotto analogy simply due to the odds and the mindset but yeah.