Simple answers - 1) Yes 2) No Per the method in post #5. X parameter is the subject of this thread. I find that a simple setup on a 30second tastes just as good on a 30minute chart. Y parameter, all products that I'm familiar with are fair game. A product that has action and liquidity is what I want to trade. Simple is Good.
Hello Easymon1, If you answered yes to question 1, then answer the following questions please: 1. What time frame will you start manually back testing with? 2. What instrument will you start manually back testing with? 3. How many time frames do plan to manually back testing with? 4. How many instruments do you plan to manually back testing with? 5. How many Setups do you plan to manually back test with? 6. Are you going to back test all setups with X timeframes and Y instruments? 7. How many historical years do you plan to back test each setup, each time frame and each instrument? How many trades in the back test? Will it be from 2008 to 2022, or 2016 to 2022? Will it be back test of 100 trades, 3000 trades? 8. How many exit methods are you going to manually back test with each setup? 9. How many entry methods are you going to manually back test with each setup? And finally and most important: 10. What performance metric or net profit or drawdown will tell you that trading setup B, with exit method D, on time frame X and instrument Y is where I will place money on to trade for the next XX of my life? One more 11. What is your deadline and completion date of completing all this manually back testing to see if Setup A through Z, using entry method A through Z, using exit method A through Z, makes good money in back test for X timeframes over I instruments from 2008 to 2022? Please answer all these questions. Please do not skip any questions. Thanks,
If you answered yes to question 1, then answer the following questions please: Your questions are phrased as if this is all future activity. No this is ongoing activity as the urge arises. 1. What time frame will you start manually back testing with? Whatever's handy. 2. What instrument will you start manually back testing with? Ditto. 4. How many instruments do you plan to manually back testing with? Ditto. 5. How many Setups do you plan to manually back test with? Ditto. 7. How many historical years do you plan to back test each setup, each time frame and each instrument? How many trades in the back test? Will it be from 2008 to 2022, or 2016 to 2022? Will it be back test of 100 trades, 3000 trades? Ditto. 3. How many time frames do plan to manually back testing with? See post #5 and follow the links there too. 6. Are you going to back test all setups with X timeframes and Y instruments? Ditto. 8. How many exit methods are you going to manually back test with each setup? Start with measured move. 9. How many entry methods are you going to manually back test with each setup? One trigger. And finally and most important: 10. What performance metric or net profit or drawdown will tell you that trading setup B, with exit method D, on time frame X and instrument Y is where I will place money on to trade for the next XX of my life? P/L One more 11. What is your deadline and completion date of completing all this manually back testing to see if Setup A through Z, using entry method A through Z, using exit method A through Z, makes good money in back test for X timeframes over I instruments from 2008 to 2022? One setup at a time. Deadline? lol. Please answer all these questions. Please do not skip any questions.
Hello easymon1, I highly encourage you to print out my questions and give it more smart thinking and planning answer the questions wisely and truthfully. You opened a thread about setups and asking questions, but not answering thoughtful questions about how you plan to manually backtest these setups smartly.
Hello easymon1, So just P/L is all you need to see. If Setup C have a net profit of $30,000 over the past 1000 trades, and drawdown of $25,000, is this satisfactory to you place money on setup C for the next XX of your life? In addition, what if you never test setup D and it has net profit of $40,000 over the past 1000 trades, and only drawdown of $10,000. So again, what is your performance metrics you need to see when you manually back test Setups A through Z?
If I saw 25 drawdown for a 30 profit, that method would not be of interest. what if you never test setup D? lol Them's the breaks. My method works fine for me to add tools to my trading toolbox. If a trader wants to impose more stringent metrics, it's a free country, do so. Oftentimes perfection is preventionary when good enough works fine. This could lead to just guessing and entering on the flip of a coin. If that works for that trader, then that's fine with me. Are you interested in backtesting?
Good Morning easymon1, This is a great question you asked me. I have tried manual back testing and also programming automated back testing in the prior 5 years. I do not have the time for either. I prefer to just trade in real time and do the best I can. I will never manual back test or automated back test any trading idea(s). I simply believe in waking up in the morning and trying to win every day for about 1-3 hours. That is why I asked you all those questions so you can logically see how complicated manual back testing is without properly making a plan how you want to really see if you what you are testing for make money year to year. Not to mention, time is ticking. You do not want to be +50years old manual backtesting using all your energy and time. . It comes to a point where you simply have to believe in something and just trade it in SIM until make money , then go live. Be a good guesser As Scataphagos says, I just trade Price, it does not lie to me.
%% IF you are learning lessons on profitable 5 minute charts\no need to get confused on longer time frames. Another big disadvantage on longer time frames, they may bore you/big time. Another big disadvantage on on bigger time frames not as much drama as a 5 minute chart. EVEN a 60 minute chart has much fewer bid ask spreads, no where near as much fun drama as a 5 or 4 minute chart........................................................................ Monthly charts[printed paper] may help profit in a good trend, never boring.