Maybe its just my imagination, so I was wondering if anyone else has noticed that the last 30 seconds of a 5 minute bar seems to produces allot of the move for that bar? If so, do you have any thoughts as to why? Maybe allot of traders looking at 5min charts and acting in anticipation of the bar close?
1. yes 2. can't say for sure 3. probably! welcome to the world of mind tricks. to the left is the money pit. to the right, the insane asylum. enjoy your stay!
...can't say about 5 minute bars, but your observation applies to 1 minute bars at critical price levels in NQ. I have learned not to take trades my systems call if the bar makes a dramatic move in the last three seconds of the minute.
__________________________________________ That is not your problem. The problem is that when you are day trading or "intra-day" trading off of 5 min bars you don't have the benefit of the big picture. What you need to do is time your entries with the 5min bar but not decide direction with it. in other words you should use the 60min chart to determine direction withen the 1st hour of trading. then use the 5min chart to time entry into the overall trend or lack thereof. the classic 2BC (2 Bar Charlie) system is designed to do just that. the use of the Stochastic helps to scalp the best postion withen the current inflow of cash into the market and will put you in the best possible position to profit. use a 5 bar EMA to help time these intra-play reversals withen the 5 bar chart setup. remember the shorter the time interval the harder to determine proper price forecast. YOU CAN NOT win in the long term with just using intra-day price charts without 1st determining the overall price objective for the market during any given day. welcome to the jungle. This 5min candle chart should help to shed some light on the topic. this is not necessarily a good example because most of the move occured during yesterday's close and last night. but you get the picture. pun intended.
hourly bars saved my ass. I never became consistent until I started using them. As T-Rex said, you MUST have a good idea of the prevailing direction, and hourly bars help with that. They keep you from trading too much, also.