You guys are hysterical. The gov't can't fudge the numbers higher because it will crash the market. If they are too strong, the fed will be forced to raise rates and that will kill the market. Do you guys even listen to what you are saying. I'm not saying I believe the numbers, but the job's revisions are well within the standard deviation of the last 5 years. You guys need to understand something, the Fed and the government are opposing forces. What is good for one, is bad for the other. These two forces cancel each other out. If the government puts out bad data, it forces the fed to correct it. And vice versa. In other words, monetary policy and fiscal policy are at conflict with each other at all times. As it should be. It is the explicit reason why it was created this way. Put the conspiracy theories to rest. Or better yet, go back to college and take some Econ classes. It is quite obvious all the guys on this thread came right from the fast food industry straight to trading.
Mav 74 is the voice of reason, as often. The problem is that people with a strong bias, ie being a bear, think that any good news are manipulated. I rarely hear people on the right side of the trade complain about manipulation. Eh I could not careless about the numbers. I am just looking at the reaction of the market. And, as of right now, the market does not seem to be able to maintain its early gains. Now if the market sells-off, are we going to hear those conspiracies theorists ?
That's rather harsh, although I was flipping burgers at McDonalds in 1968. On a more serious note, I agree the CT'ers are off base, but do you think this economy is sustainable with this continueing transition from well paid mfg. workers to poorly paid service slaves? It's a great environment for some with entrepeneurial aspirations, but the average Joe LunchBucket is taking a hard hit. Is it true that the average Joe keeps the economy going, or is it something else?
Easy there Mav. I was merely stating from an economic standpoint these numbers don't bode well for the markets IMO. While the title of the thread implies some sort of duplicitous scheme to pump up the party in power, you know damn well the talking points for the next 4 days is going to be the headline number, which really doesn't tell the whole story. I'll bet you my next week McD's check that this will be pounded into the ground. As for the actual numbers, I like you don't believe they are outright manipulated but they drastically underreport what is actually going on. More concerning in my mind is how they dropped reporting the M3 numbers and how the CPI underreports real inflation. I know you are a big fan of this economy and administration but you cannot keep growing the money supply they way it is without having it bight you in the ass at some point. That is why these numbers are so bag ---- spells stagflation, the worst of all worlds.
What percentage of those eligible to vote does that represent, when you say most voters. Less than half? A sad situation when the remaining 50% of us who do vote are so equally divided.
In a debt laden financed based lbo'd, mbo'd, stockbuy backs, cds, cdos, heloc' etc... the market sh#ts iteself when the cost of money goes higher. It has nothing to with earnings jobs. credit credit credit credit. Its going to go on until it doesnt and then you will not want to live here anymore.
you must be one of the last guys around thinking the Fed is independent. If you trade on the back of this belief and your 101 eco courses, then good for you. by the way, your SD calculations are worthless as they rely on the raw numbers (51,000...148,000) whereas they should really on the % of the revision (148,000/51,000)
Its ok if you don't like Bush but how could you support a party of morons? Do you really want the party that Kerry, Clinton, Conyers, Dean belong too. The party of mass media socialists? You socialists on the low end of the food chain, broke, without marketable skills, poor work records, uneducated, unambitious, with bad attitudes are just fodder for the socialist elites. John
Actually the political environment is so polarized today that most who have a party affiliation already know which way they are voting. I suspect the ~30% of the voting pop that identifies themselves as independent have largely made up their mind as well by now - they are not very divided, however, by a 3 to 1 margin they say they will be suppporting democrats this year.
World economic centers have shifted all through history. It's unrealistic to expect that the US will keep her privileged position forever. No outside force will make that happen either. We will slowly rot out from the inside. Our debt will be a player. Declining education in the general population will contribute, among other things. We have to hit some sort of national "bottom" before things will turn around (if they turn around).