Yes, I do think this is important. More than a year would certainly be nice as the 80 trades or so isn't a huge sample size. But to be honest, I would be incredibly impressed to see most trades using up 70% of the account and still survive after 10 trades. I do wonder though what happened to the part where he mentioned that he sells premium. I went on and on about that, and when further details were shared, there was only talk of buying or selling puts. Mind you, this is more interesting to me as he is taking direct market direction bet. What would also be interesting is what kind of damage was done for those 5 trades that were losers. I noticed in the chart he showed, he did have one trade where he "only" got a 10% win, even though the market still went down nicely after. So in this case at least, it seems like the market direction wasn't 100% clear as he got out even though it did continue in this direction. One more thing if you can explain please @humbletrader2016 . You said that you're using 70% of the account, and that this therefore means that you are buying hundreds of contracts. Lets just say that you buy 1000 contracts, and with these being around $1.50 to $2.00, this would mean you're only using an account that is roughly $2000. (ie. A $2 option, times 1000, is only $2000 dollars. And if this represents 70% of your account, this means your account is about $2800). I assume your accounts should be in the order of at least 100k, so using 70% of this on a single trade means your volumes should be drastically higher. If my math is wrong somewhere, please point it out. Thanks.
let's give him the benefit of the doubt and lets assume he trades nearer to the money contracts, with an expiry up to 3 months out, where premium is on average priced at 20-50 dollars per contract (assuming SPX options he mentioned), that still puts his account at around max 100k USD assuming 1000 contracts, traded, even if he employed only 33% of his capital (which he claimed he as a minimum takes). So your math seems correct with the assumptions you made. Does not sound like the big shot he claims to be. That of course only if he buys premium. If he writes contracts that would tie up about 4 times more capital to satisfy margin requirements with most ordinary brokers. The above are all ballpark figures and are of course subject to different delta levels, the exact time to expiry, implied vols, ...
Ah, ok. I haven't even looked at options which would be months out so I wasn't really sure about the pricing of those. But based on the chart he showed, the expiry dates looked to be Oct 21 and 26, and clearly those were under $2, so I figured this could apply for the entire set of stats. This is of course the trouble with percentages. Making 100% on a 2-5k acount is apparently not impossible, but doing this on a 500k account is a whole different ballgame.
yes, as stated your math seems absolutely correct on the assumptions you made. I was just being incredibly generous by looking at up to 3month out contracts, assuming he does not trade hundreds but a 1000 contracts each, and assuming he employed only 33% of his capital on each trade (the absolute bare minimum he stated rather than the 70% he often takes, as he claimed). His account size lies probably somewhere in the middle, between 3k and 100k, putting him squarely into the ordinary retail trader category, which is usually perfectly fine but makes him overstate his accomplishments by a lot.
You are funny. You didn't read my post carefully before going on to attack me like a big and tough guy, but you are chicken to take my bet and then, you come up with an excuse asking me for 5-year of trading records. YOU ARE A PUSSY, period. Thanks to negative people like you, I'm done with my contributions on Elite Trader. Like my gf has said for years, there is NO need to show any pity to negative people like you who just keep failing. The only kind of pity I should have is pity for animal and kids because they are defenseless. Sticking to her side over the years to see her volunteer works help saving many animals, I guess she is TOTALLY right about it. Ciao EliteTrader peeps. Good luck to your trading endeavor. James: wish you to receive your first $5000 cheque soon so you can celebrate for holiday season
- I was serious, my bet offer stands, and it seems you took your mouth a little too full - I did read your posts carefully: You claimed you are a big ass trader, in reality your account is most likely sub 100k USD given all the parameters you supplied. I am not the only one who arrived at those numbers, others put your account at an even lower level - 5 years is actually a generous compromise given professional shops ask for longer track records and references, especially given you only claimed to have traded 80 trades in a year which means nothing in the grand scheme of things. - I am not negative, I am just not gullible and swallow the bs you are dishing up here - maybe you should get married to your gf of many years, it would show some sort of commitment on your side, more than the commitment you show to your bet which you abandoned in less than 24 hours - Good riddance, don't let the door hit you on the way out - Next time be more honest regarding your show-off statements because as here, you might be taken up on it.
not sure whom you are addressing here. But I never suggested nor accepted a guy on this site to function as escrow. != @humbletrader2016 might or might not know this guy. As said, I stand by my bet and can wire the money to an agreed escrow firm any time. But it very much looks like our friend had to eat his own words.
I think honest beats humble. Humble is often false, overrated and superficial. Apparently people not used to look inward for success, but looking outward for whatever else they are really seeking. Thanks for providing educational entertainment.