Cashed all those oil buys in now... (My stupid cautious safety side came in again and i dropped £2 at 67.80 spike... it rose to 68.20 within next 5seconds so i missed £60!! But ive counted and ive made £261 after spread profit today! (Paying between £36 t £60 spread cost per trade now that is!!) And that is when i have been being cautious and scaling down trades from that £5 tick to just £2/3. So thats now back up to £461 so far for the week.
Ooooh took another £42 profit from getting my sell in at the very top tick of that spike, and then cashing in just 5ticks off the lowest tick of the pullback! I so soooo much ish oil could have a 2points spread like that ftse, cos i would be doubling up my current profit levels each trade nearly!! Thats now £303 for the day (clear portfoilio now apart from my hbos long). And £503 for the week, which im extremely pleased with. I think im now gna have a shower though and holdout till we either; Fallback to 67.69 level, where if we for support i will buy £3/4 per tick, tightish stoploss at just belowdown at the 67.07 support, and the target level at 69.26. OR Hit the 71.26 level, that could be sellable, although i wouldnt relaly like to be selling in this market now.
First, sure Spanish is gambling, but all of probability theory came from a study of the odds in gambling. He is playing the odds. He has watched the price action in oil obsessively for a year, so now he has a pretty good idea of the reaction pattern of the community of supply chain managers and refiners that make up the big players that trade oil. Now he has a pretty good sense of the direction of reaction, but not how far it will move, so he is not letting his bets ride long. Spanish: If you look at the price action of GE vs oil, does GE lead or follow or move simultaneously?
I went long at 67.86, had set target at 68.14... cashed out for a £3 loss.... 3seconds later it hit what my target was and i missed out on £60 more!!!
Sigh I made the foolish mistake of trying to 'redo' that trade, even though inside i knew the timing and market action to have a quick restest of that level was gone... Ive gotten into a long from 67.93, stoploss $1, so max i can do is breakeven with £0 today if that gets hit. Target has been set at $69.13 though, based not especially on the opec, as thats stale news, but on quite a few various factors that i could explain later in more detail.
:/ I cashed those 3 in fro after spread profit of just £27 at $68.08! :eek: Which is extremely disappointing as i was holding it and watching the market for over an hour, and turned down £109 profit when it spiked up to the 68.40s, but my target had been for 68.86 - 69.26.. Especially when it did form support bases at every one of those levels that i forecasted it would. But it made a quadruple top at the 68.14 area now, and i had got in at 67.93which was only 1tick below where the latest not so strong support base was, so i didnt want to risk that being broken. (i had moved my stoploss to 67.18 though just incase it started breaking supports). So thats now £327 for the day, and £527 for the week so far, which isnt bad i guess. Next move will be that when opec announced cut sell off the rally, as once its priced in then itl be a case of 'higher price will mean even less demmand', so should expect to see a little pullback to the 66.80 area or 65.52, But then itl be time for some buying back, as even if demmand is down people will still keep driving cars n using oil, and opec wont sell at ridiculously low prices, so oil will still have to have a decent enough price.
Aww yay im very happy now cos even though it wasnt the perfect £100+ exit i wanted, i guess when you trend trade you dont use the second-by-seconds chart to close out on spikes like i normally do with my 'opportunist' style of trading, but instead just close out at general level of resistance. And the price dropped sharply 59seconds after i cashed in, broke .94 and now trying to break through .80 support!! I think thats me done for the day. How come no-one else is able to multi-task and come and post on here while trading too though??? :eek: Cos i feel like a right loner sitting here talking to myself on a website fourm!! LOL Il post my trade history just 2 re-show and prove that i do take losses, dont just gamble wildly! lol Just my losses are normally under 2-digits most weeks. Trade History Contract ID Status Order # Date/Time Buy/Sell £/Tic Price Profit/Loss FTSE 100 -Daily Cash 20969 Open 5962786 23/10/2008 08:25:00 Sell 1 4076 20969 Open 5962843 23/10/2008 08:25:00 Sell 1 4076 20969 Closed 5962843 23/10/2008 08:29:00 Buy 1 0 Stop Loss Move 20969 Closed 5962864 23/10/2008 08:30:00 Buy 1 0 Stop Loss Move 20969 Open 5962864 23/10/2008 08:25:00 Sell 1 4076 20969 Closed 5962921 23/10/2008 08:33:00 Buy 1 4056 £20.00 NymexCrude Dec Fut - 19 Nov, 08 21320 Open 5959225 22/10/2008 15:35:00 Sell 3 67.88 21320 Open 5959271 22/10/2008 15:35:00 Sell 3 67.88 21320 Closed 5959271 22/10/2008 15:37:00 Buy 3 0 Stop Loss Move 21320 Closed 5959377 22/10/2008 15:43:00 Buy 3 0 Stop Loss Move 21320 Open 5959377 22/10/2008 15:35:00 Sell 3 67.88 21320 Closed 5959474 22/10/2008 15:49:00 Buy 3 68.58 £-210.00 21320 Open 5959723 22/10/2008 16:06:00 Buy 3 67.93 21320 Closed 5959872 22/10/2008 16:19:00 Sell 3 68.09 £48.00 21320 Open 5959883 22/10/2008 16:21:00 Buy 3 68.1 21320 Open 5959891 22/10/2008 16:21:00 Buy 3 68.1 21320 Closed 5959891 22/10/2008 16:21:00 Sell 3 0 Stop Loss Move 21320 Open 5960713 22/10/2008 18:16:00 Buy 2 66.85 21320 Closed 5960818 22/10/2008 18:29:00 Sell 2 67.33 £96.00 21320 Open 5960830 22/10/2008 18:30:00 Buy 2 67.24 21320 Open 5960831 22/10/2008 18:30:00 Buy 2 67.24 21320 Closed 5960831 22/10/2008 18:30:00 Sell 2 0 Stop Loss Move 21320 Closed 5960832 22/10/2008 18:30:00 Sell 2 0 Stop Loss Move 21320 Open 5960832 22/10/2008 18:30:00 Buy 2 67.24 21320 Open 5960858 22/10/2008 18:30:00 Buy 2 67.24 21320 Closed 5960858 22/10/2008 18:33:00 Sell 2 0 Stop Loss Move 21320 Closed 5961134 22/10/2008 19:21:00 Sell 2 67.41 £34.00 21320 Open 5961152 22/10/2008 19:22:00 Buy 2 67.44 21320 Closed 5961839 22/10/2008 20:41:00 Sell 2 66.44 £-200.00 21320 Open 5961875 22/10/2008 20:43:00 Buy 2 66.43 21320 Open 5961881 22/10/2008 20:43:00 Buy 2 66.43 21320 Closed 5961881 22/10/2008 20:44:00 Sell 2 0 Stop Loss Move 21320 Closed 5961883 22/10/2008 20:44:00 Sell 3 0 Stop Loss Move 21320 Open 5961883 22/10/2008 16:21:00 Buy 3 68.1 21320 Closed 5961963 22/10/2008 20:48:00 Sell 2 66.67 £48.00 21320 Open 5962028 22/10/2008 20:51:00 Buy 2 66.81 21320 Open 5962032 22/10/2008 20:51:00 Buy 2 66.81 21320 Closed 5962032 22/10/2008 20:51:00 Sell 2 0 Stop Loss Move 21320 Open 5962327 22/10/2008 16:21:00 Buy 3 68.1 21320 Closed 5962327 23/10/2008 07:41:00 Sell 3 0 Stop Loss Move 21320 Open 5962328 22/10/2008 20:51:00 Buy 2 66.81 21320 Closed 5962328 23/10/2008 07:41:00 Sell 2 0 Stop Loss Move 21320 Closed 5962331 23/10/2008 07:42:00 Sell 2 67.42 £122.00 21320 Open 5962339 23/10/2008 07:45:00 Buy 2 67.6 21320 Open 5962340 23/10/2008 07:45:00 Buy 2 67.6 21320 Closed 5962340 23/10/2008 07:45:00 Sell 2 0 Stop Loss Move 21320 Open 5962351 22/10/2008 16:21:00 Buy 3 68.1 21320 Closed 5962351 23/10/2008 07:47:00 Sell 3 0 Stop Loss Move 21320 Open 5962353 23/10/2008 07:45:00 Buy 2 67.6 21320 Closed 5962353 23/10/2008 07:48:00 Sell 2 0 Stop Loss Move 21320 Closed 5963074 23/10/2008 08:51:00 Sell 2 67.81 £42.00 21320 Closed 5963106 23/10/2008 08:54:00 Sell 3 68.09 £-3.00 21320 Open 5963153 23/10/2008 08:58:00 Buy 4 68.01 21320 Open 5963156 23/10/2008 08:58:00 Buy 4 68.01 21320 Closed 5963156 23/10/2008 08:58:00 Sell 4 0 Stop Loss Move 21320 Closed 5963164 23/10/2008 08:59:00 Sell 4 0 Stop Loss Move 21320 Open 5963164 23/10/2008 08:58:00 Buy 4 68.01 21320 Closed 5963188 23/10/2008 09:02:00 Sell 4 68.21 £80.00 21320 Open 5963241 23/10/2008 09:11:00 Sell 3 68.41 21320 Closed 5963266 23/10/2008 09:16:00 Buy 3 68.27 £42.00 21320 Open 5963311 23/10/2008 09:26:00 Buy 3 67.86 21320 Closed 5963698 23/10/2008 10:06:00 Sell 3 67.85 £-3.00 21320 Open 5963819 23/10/2008 10:18:00 Buy 3 67.93 21320 Open 5964820 23/10/2008 10:18:00 Buy 3 67.93 21320 Closed 5964820 23/10/2008 11:56:00 Sell 3 0 Stop Loss Move 21320 Closed 5965083 23/10/2008 12:28:00 Sell 3 68.02 £27.00 And i worked out that in those trades i missed out on £468 extra that i earnt through aying that as comission fees today!! :eek: :eek:
Hi spanish, good stuff. I've made 2 trades today for a total profit of £83.77 taking my account to £5177.01 I'll probably leave it until after 6pm when i can focus a bit more.
Ooooooh oil just crashed down to barely above $66!!! I wonder how many longs got caught ut by that! I wont be buying it till the its under 65.52 i think., then itl just be at the lowest intraday level, and will be holding that till the 66.26 area as 1st target.