I think the front month contract is going to sell off over the next week. There are lots of speculative long positions who will not want to take delivery and this is especially true given the massive over-supply of oil in the physical market. The current spread is only 90 cents between June/July. I have taken a position on this spread. I expect it to rise to at least $2-3 by this time next week.
this JUNE contract will go into sell off mode for sure. But the question is when, many big players wanted to take it to $60 before sell off . For that it may take a day or two to take it to $60 before slide starts . at 90 cents this JUNE/JULY , this spread has lowest risk. All spread contracts closed more than $1 in recent 6 months. Spread increasing upto $2 is a possibility beyond that it has limited chances. I am planning to enter good number of lots as spreads after researching bit more.
took short at 5820 looking for 40 cents/lot we have big drop in S&P to 904 , euro is down but this oil is still holding . I feel in overnite it may give up 50 cents , let us see
closed around flat position . looked at EURUSD 30 min. chart , my above EURo weak is not right . at 1.357 EURO is at high levels seen in Late JAN and Late March , so this strong EURUSD bode well for high oil price. looking to short at high prices like 5860 level
i took 35c from the dip just now, it looked like a double top so i went for it. i've noticed at night from 6-2ish, there's rarely any commitment from traders to break up or down. We just bounce along previous day lines. But from like 2-8am it's a different story, seems that's when the market makes it's move, when i'm asleep.
All times I mentioned are US Eastern times EST . Here is important time windows for oil. part 1: 5 to 8 am one should be vigilant . European and asian markets set the tone for US S&P Futures and OIL future contracts . part 2: 8 am - 14 EST main session part 3: 1400 - 1430 EST last climax 1/2 hour after 1430 next 1.5 hours even thought Nasdaq/NYSE is active crude trading is pretty much done by 1430 because crude pit trading closes at 1430 , after that is electronic trading session. - If you look at volume 8 am - 1430 EST is main volume for the day, if you see outside of this time window the total vloume of the out side this peak window is 5% of 8 am - 1430 EST volume
i think pit trading is from 900-1430 est. though crude can be very active in the few hours leading up to that time, which is when i'm asleep! damn it why do i enjoy sleep so much. also, like any market i think, the biggest moves and volume are in the first and last 15-30 minutes of pit trading. i'm usually scared shitless and stay to the side during those moves. which time zone are you in IV?
finally Usman much awaited olil $60 is here today soon - on strength of euro 1.3665 - equity market strength ES 915