1) The selling bias in oil also looks to be tied to the early strength in the Dollar which appears to be diminishing the appeal of oil as an inflation hedge. 2) The May 5th COT report with options for crude oil showed the market had become a bit technically overbought with the combined fund and spec net long position at 73,235 contracts as of early last week, which is certainly understated given the price gains since the report was measured. 3) While June crude oil may be sufficiently overbought for the market to pull back towards $55, price corrections are likely to be short lived unless losses in equity markets begin to sour the macro economic recovery theme and so far, there doesn't seem to be a reason for that to happen. 4) In fact, trade data from China shows a pick-up in oil demand as government stimulus efforts take hold and that should help to keep the big picture outlook for oil generally positive. 5) A thin report ( few economic reports) schedule this week will likely keep oil market direction closed tied to equity market movements and that is likely to result in a more two sided trade.
long 57.80, stop 57.65. we're following equities nicely today, looks like some normalcy has returned to oil... for me at least.
Usman.........how u doing.........becareful with tht conviction though..........brent is expirying and ICE is the real casino.
vgood infact after i made the quoted statement we hit 5863. I got out at 5840 as fund selling came pouring in like anything. ATM I am short 5795 with stop of 5820 target 5710
btw I am still extremely bullish on oil. The current short I am in is just an intermediary move I want to get advantage of. I am going to buy and buy heavily the moment my system suggests to (which would be around 5700 mark ) We are going to touch $60
I would seriously want to share your bias ...........but the current run based on bo fundamentals in stocks leaves me curious.........notwithstanding, i believe ur discipline is good enough.
we ran out of time for 5700 price for today before bouncing again to 58 range ( it touched once 5700 this morning )