yesterday Exxon mobile reported worse than expected results , over all oil market tone is mild to negative. today chevron reported better than expected results oil tone seems neutral to positive. hmmmm.. trying to understand this . I just looked at this news , I am on short side bit early too ----------- Oil giant Chevron Corp. said Friday that first-quarter net income fell 64% to $1.84 billion, or 92 cents a share, in the first quarter. Consensus expectations were for earnings of 86 cents a share. Shares rose 10% to $66.76 in trading in France.
oil/rb/ho are rogue at the moment!! i'm still holding from 51.90. the only real explanation i have is the non-cut from the fed two days ago. that keeps the dollar strong and perhaps that's weighing in on prices this week.
Here is the possible explanation for this spike in oil to 53.0 . Oil did not participate in the equity rally from monday , big hedge funds waited for Fed report to sense the economy recovery time period , equity markets are happy with fed report and recovery expecations. Oil waited one more day ( after fed) that is yesterday to sense the dollar stength ( against euro jpy ) Now all the issues are settled for hedge funds with respect to oil , they wanted the last 2 days due ( of equity market hike ) to price in oil , so is the todays action. Once the economy picks in 6 months , these 5 million builds /week in crude stocks ( EIA reports) for several weeks is not a factor . When economy picks all these excess builds will be used just in 1 week , and the hedge funds know this ... today oil will close around 5240 range ...
not starting off the month right here. -2500 today, holding just 1 short left. hopefully we'll retrace atleast a little and i'll recoup some. i knew when oil decoupled from other markets i'd have a horrible day. need to tread very lightly next week. it's been a very profitable 2 months since i started trading oil, and i've always used the equities to confirm trades. sigh.
pretty bad day for me , oil traders holding for last 2 days equity market gains and showed it confidence in economy/oil ..