Usman can you pls. give your observations /thoughts little ahead . we are all trying to put our thoughts in the forum what ever we reserach/fell etc. One does not have to be right all the time and should not worry about being wrong. Nobody is correct all the time . The forum is to share thoughts for mutual benefit of all
i post here whenever i can I am managing large multiple accounts and therefore dont get much time. And as far as this particular observation is concerned cmon man.....ive posted this here 100s of time. and everyone else here knows about weekend fear buying too EDIT: Some examples
as far as monday is concerned Short as soon as market opens (I am hoping 52.10) with stop of 5260 and target below 51. Todays close below 5250 indicates weakness. I am counting on IEA report however whatever the demand revision (even if its bullish which is very far fetched) we go south
ALoha usman and invest, can i just ask how comes you focus more on trading based on what you think the fundamentals will cause to happen, moreover than mainly just using the chart patterns and movements?? You do it quite well still though so it obviously works for you... But im just curious as to how comes you prefer using anticipation of effects of fundamentals?? Hows everyone done this week though?? And you guys working or on holiday tomorrow??
Highlights of the latest OMR dated: 10 April 2009 http://omrpublic.iea.org/ Benchmark crude prices exceeded $50/bbl for the first time in four months as more bullish sentiment entered financial markets in late March/early April. Prices recently have tracked expectations for the global economy, seeking signs of demand recovery. However, pervasively weak market fundamentals could limit further gains for now. Forecast 2009 global oil demand is revised down by 1.0 mb/d after a reassessment of GDP assumptions and much lower-than-expected 1Q09 demand data. Global demand is now forecast at 83.4 mb/d, 2.4 mb/d below 2008. The pace of contraction is close to early 1980s levels, with a growing consensus that economic and oil demand recovery will be deferred to 2010. Global oil supply fell by 400 kb/d in March, to 83.4 mb/d. Non-OPEC supply fell by 170 kb/d, with a 220 kb/d dip in the OECD partly offset by higher non-OECD output. 2009 non-OPEC output is revised down by 320 kb/d, largely due to lower biofuels output, and weaker 1Q09 crude production in Asia. Non-OPEC output now falls from 50.6 mb/d in 2008 to 50.3 mb/d in 2009. OPEC crude supply in March averaged 27.8 mb/d, down 235 kb/d versus February. OPEC-11 output stands 720 kb/d above a 24.9 mb/d target that was retained at OPECâs 15 March meeting. Supplies stand at five-year lows, amid exceptionally weak demand, with Ministers meeting again on 28 May. Effective spare capacity is around 5.5 mb/d. The call on OPEC crude and stock change is 28.2 mb/d for 2009, 2.6 mb/d below 2008 levels. OECD industry stocks rose by 7.5 mb in February to 2,743 mb, 7.2% above a year ago. Lower North American products only partially offset a rise in Pacific crude stocks. An upward revision to January inventories, plus increasing February stocks and weaker forward demand, pushed end-February stock cover to 61.6 days, 7.9 days above a year ago. Lower global crude runs are expected to persist through 2Q09 and into 3Q09. Demand revisions, weak middle distillate cracks and reports of bulging product inventories in several markets, suggest a further painful period of weak margins as refiners adjust operating rates to the 2.8% decline in demand now expected for this year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-falls-to-below-52-on-IEA-apf-14907149.html The Paris-based IEA, an energy policy adviser comprised of 28 countries, said on Friday that demand this year will likely fall by 1 million barrels a day to 83.4 million barrels, or 2.8 percent lower than last year. The IEA cited "a growing consensus that economic and oil demand recovery will be deferred to 2010." "That's very serious demand destruction," said Victor Shum, an analyst with consultancy Pervin & Gertz in Singapore. "The macroeconomics don't look good at all for this year." Oil prices have rallied from below $35 a barrel in February, mirroring a jump in stock markets, as investors anticipate massive global stimulus packages may spark a recovery in the second half. "Investors have brushed aside near-term worries about the economy and oil demand," Shum said. "They're looking ahead to an eventual revival in the global economy." Traders will be watching a slew of quarterly corporate results this week for signs the worst of the economic downturn is over. Banks such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. will report this week along with Intel Corp., Johnson & Johnson, Mattel Inc. On Sunday, Iran's oil minister Gholam Hossein Nozari told state television that a price of between $75 and $80 dollars a barrel is desirable for both Tehran and oil consumers. Iran is a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which as announced production cuts of 4.2 million barrels a day since September. "OPEC compliance with the cuts remains quite high, but nobody, even in OPEC, expects prices to get to $75 this year," Shum said. "In the longer-term, it will likely get there, but not this year." In other Nymex trading, gasoline for May delivery was steady at $1.47 a gallon and heating oil was steady at $1.42 a gallon. Natural gas for May delivery was steady at $3.55 per 1,000 cubic feet. In London, Brent prices rose 1 cent to $54.07 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
Market still has the potential to fall till 49.50 but ill be waiting for retracement before any short entry