5% - 10% profit per day trading

I perosnally think that big players can move the market, since the rice only changes because of big sze trades in certain directions...,
however i dont think they can actually 'control' the market in such an organised way though as we sometimes say.

Since there are 1,000s n 1,000s of them also...,
and they are all in 1 big group of friends who chat on msn saying ''lets take this to 48.86 now'' or anything like that. lol



But more focused on now, dow is making new highs which could hopefull rise oil.

I have sell order for 49.38, however looking on 1hour chart this market could easily gap up a few dollars more tomorrow even,
since reversals dont seem to exist anymore.. lol

And so 15% t 20% moves in both directions are the norm now.


I would like a sell in at 51.26 may contract, so -90 lower (51.36) on april one that i trade tomorrow.

However i dont want to risk this falling to the 46s without me, as i need that 200+ticks for food for the week n weekend.



Im also thinking about how april will expire tomorrow.

Since normally we get 'shorts squeezes, 1-2days before expiry as all the short swing traders cash in.
But this time everyone swing trading is long,
so im thinking if they have to all sell to cash in that could cause big down move.

 

hmm... you did some miracles to pull off loss with longs today

what do you think oil pulling $2 from these levels ( some time tomorrow) once EIA numbers are released tomorrow where report is expected to show like last week that is about +1 milllion crude and -2 gasoline

 

going short here at 48.91

 

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090318/oil_prices.html?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=TBD&ccode=TBD

"I haven't seen enough to think oil is going to rally for good," said Clarence Chu, a trader with market maker Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. "I don't expect oil demand and the price to really bounce back until the second half."


Investors will be watching for the weekly crude inventory report for the week ended March 13 by the Energy Information Administration later on Wednesday. Analysts surveyed by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos., expect an increase of crude stocks of 2 million barrels.

"If inventories build, that could slow this rally," Chu said.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601100&sid=a5OGb0Wm3uUg&refer=germany

U.S. oil stockpiles increased 4.66 million barrels to 349.9 million barrels last week, the most in almost two years, the Washington-based American Petroleum Institute said in a report after the close of trading yesterday. Japanese refiners operated plants at 78.4 percent of capacity last week, down 3.8 percentage points from the previous week, according to data released today by the Petroleum Association of Japan.

“Without a substantial recovery in the U.S. economy, crude prices won’t gain momentum to lift them to as high as $60 a barrel,” said Masahiko Sato, a senior analyst at OvalNext Corp. in Tokyo. “Clearly, languishing petroleum demand in Japan led refiners to cutting back on plant operations.”

Crude oil for April delivery fell as much as 84 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $48.32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and traded at $48.73 at 3:33 p.m. Singapore time.
------
An Energy Department report today is forecast to show that U.S. crude oil inventories gained 1.5 million barrels last week, according to the median of 14 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The department is scheduled to release its weekly report today at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

Gasoline stockpiles probably dropped 1.5 million barrels from 212.5 million the prior week, according to the survey. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, probably rose 1 million barrels from 145.4 million, the survey showed.

 

I am thinking about going short again.

Whats everyone else planning for today?

 

Here is my reasoning for wanting to go short:

On the hourly chart, before every peak, we made an inverted hammer candlestick. And we just made two of them. (see chart)

That usually means that there is little support at those levels and market drops as soon as it rallies there.

 

Here is the daily chart.

I've been burned badly for shorting this week, so I am being cautious as well.

On the daily chart, we have some more of upside to go before reaching the top of the channel. So it might be safer to wait until it touches the top of the channel at 52.50 before going short.

But i really hate to stand on the sideline and miss this move down, which I think is very likely to happen.

FYI this is May contract

 

I am going to get some sleep so I can get up before the inventory release in a few hours.