45 Million iPads in 2011? Don't Bet on It

Today I watched jim cramer talk about 40 million ipads being sold in 2011 and that the netbook industry has been taken down by the ipad. He says apple is too cheap and that numbers have to come up. Everyone is all about apple and that no competition can touch them according to their sales of ipod and iphone sales over the last few years. Here is one persons view on why apple will not sell 45 million ipads and I have to agree with him more than cramer.



45 Million iPads in 2011? Don't Bet on It
Published: Thursday, 7 Oct 2010 | 3:34 PM ET
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By: Jon Fortt
Tech Correspondent


Hold your horses, people.

It’s far from certain that Apple’s going to sell 45 million iPads in 2011, as Ticonderoga Securities analyst Brian White has suggested.

Ticonderoga Securities analyst Brian White has suggested that Apple could sell 45 million iPads in 2011.

That nosebleed number is just one analyst’s guess on what Apple could do based on some talks with component suppliers. Even if Apple sold that many, who knows what the price would be, so the $30 billion number assumes today’s average selling price. And Apple wouldn’t be ordering components for a specific product a year ahead of time either, so who knows what these suppliers’ info is based on.

Let’s look at some numbers.

Apple sold almost 21 million iPhones in fiscal 2009, nearly twice as many as the year before. They sold 54 million iPods, flat with the year before. So for Apple to sell 45 million iPads, the tablet would have to become an unprecedented hit – even by Apple’s very high standards.

The iPad, remember, just came out this spring – Bernstein Research analysts think it’s now selling at a rate of about 4.5 million units per quarter, which is 18 million a year. To hit 45 million units, Apple would have to more than double that sales rate in 2011 – something the iPhone didn’t even manage to do in its go-go year between 2008 and 2009.

But let’s have a little fun here. What would Apple have to do to increase volume to that level?

History gives us some clues.

One key thing would be to drop the entry price below the current $500, as it did with the first iPhone. How? One, come out with a smaller version, perhaps the 7-inch iPad some are expecting in January. Two, sell a subsidized version with a carrier data plan through AT&T, Verizon or others.

Another key move would be to dramatically expand distribution by selling it through the Wal-Marts of the world.

The big wildcard here is the competition. So far, the iPad has had the tablet market mostly to itself. That’s going to change soon with the advent of Android, Windows and webOS tablets. If those catch on, it’ll be a kick in the shins for those lofty iPad sales growth projections.

 

I agree with the gist of your post, but I think you may be off the mark with your last point. Sales of other MP3 players and smart phones didn't hinder sales of iPods and iPhones, but rather boosted them (likewise with Amazon's Kindle and its competitors); I think the same will happen with the iPad.

 

iPads are an iFad. 5 years from now people will look back on iPads as apples epic fail.

 

Apads are based on android technology and are much cheaper at $139...

http://www.lightinthebox.com/Androi...410-processor---667MHZ--SMQ5454-_p124253.html

 

damn why are they so cheap, I didnt know you could pick up an apad for $139 bucks, that is pretty crazy knowing the cheapest Ipad costs over $500. For $139 bucks I might have to pick one up, thats a really good price, I am sure if I wait until christmas I can pick it up for $99.

 

There is something in the comments about it defaulting to the Chinese android market... hmmm red flag... maybe will wait a few months but this is where things are going... either way, IPad is way overpriced and will start getting squeezed by lower priced manufacturer independent Android tablets

"Reply by LightInTheBox 05 / 10 / 2010
Dear john,
The Android Market for this item is linked to China website by default. You may try downloading it from official Android Market to your SD card for installation.
If it still doesn't work, please submit a ticket in the following link. We will be glad to help.
http://help.lightinthebox.com/index.php?pg=request"

 

Hey, it's Christmas in October! Here you go bro:http://cgi.ebay.com/7-APad-Wifi-MID...00522903152?pt=US_Tablets&hash=item2eb018ae70

$99

 

Couple of problems, it runs Android 1.5 and is only available from China right now...

Item location: Shenzhen, Guangdong, China

"It usually takes 15-35 days to deliver the item to you"

By the time you get it there will be other US options available for Christmas.

 

I didn't pay attention to where it was coming from. Talk about difficult to return if it's broke...

 

Apads are an Chinese knock-off of the Ipad running a 1 1/2 year old version of Android and are widely available throughout China. Here's another user comment about these devices:

"These Apads run like absolute arse. Their resistive touch screens almost require a hammer wielded into it to make it pick up any motion, the processors are extremely laggy.

The price is a rip off for what is basically an electronic paper weight."

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I was browsing this Android tablet forum and found this Android 2.2 tablet for $249 with an 8" screen. Not bad but I have no idea where these are from and how well they are supported. Best to wait until Best Buy and Amazon start selling them.

http://www.nowsupplier.com/android-...p-support-flash-player-10512m-ram-p-1413.html

I don't think Google has "officially" authorized a release an Android capable device that is not a phone. The Samsung Galaxy Tab is the closest to a tablet right now but is also a phone.

http://www.androidtapp.com/samsung-galaxy-tab/