since you've done all this testing of your system, when you go live DON'T deviate from it. if the systems says long, go long, even if you think the market is going down. traders can make successful systems losing ones. start small when you go live, follow the system to the T for one month, and at the end of the month then evaluate your system. sounds to me if you stay disciplined to the system you will be successful. i also think you'll also be surprised by the lack of slippage in the e-mini's.
Watch your bankroll like a sacred cow.... Cut your losses... Cut your losses.. Dont event think about draw down... Dont let it happen.. If your bankroll falls 2% get out and move to next idea
This is what I love about the market. Your September profits were 4 times the July profits. My systems are volatility-based, and July was 4 times better than September. Cat...skin. MC
I'm not sure what the size limit of file attachments are on this board, but try attaching the file after compressing it with a program like winzip. It does a really good job shrinking the size of pdf files. Best wishes on going live. I'll be watching this thread with interest.
Please start small. Consider launching the system after it has given four or five straight losses. Psychologically and financially this will make a huge difference for you. It seems you've got a fair bank roll, so don't let that give you a false sense of security. The market WILL find a way to hurt you in the beginning. Finally if the system works, consider buying the subway franchise anyway. You only need one of you to trade, so you can take it in turns of managing the store. It will provide a real income stream during prolonged drawdowns. And give you a break from being too close to your trading. It will give you a cashflow business to cover living expenses. Which can be rechannelled back into your trading fund if you manage to sell a lot of subs. I know you'd rather trade, but hedging your bets is not a bad thing. Subway will at least give your daughters a part time job, so they won't have to hassle you for money. As the others have said, if you think the market it going to pay you a living you are already in trouble. It will not. The market does not care about your material needs. It does not care that your kids require the latest Nikes. And it does not care about your backtested results. Obviously you won't have any trouble dealing with the best case scenario, but have you defined the worst case scenario and how you would deal with the situation. remember, soldiers don't prepare for peace. Runningbear
Well, as a 50 yr old trader who has been at this for about 15 years, I have to tell you, your posts are refreshing, you are going about it the right way, I just want to say 2 things that may help. Paper trading and live trading will be very different, be prepared for it, and dont give up if the results are not what you expected, it may take longer then what you think, just hang in there and dont give up if this is what you really want to do, persistance seems to be a commnon factor of many self taught traders, and also, you stated "I tried to model an observed behavior in the Emini market. If the market changes to a 5-6 daily point trading range, then we'll be off to our franchise option. If it holds at 10 pts. or better, we'll be fine." Often times when you find something that works, it may stop working and may require on going tweaking based on changing market conditions, dont be afraid to make adjustments as needed. Good luck, you are clearly very smart and going about this the right way, please keep the board informed....
Your journal sounds like a well written novel. Unfortunately, just about everything you've written is based on pure fiction... Reality is... TRADING(in the beginning) IS NOT FOR PEOPLE WITH FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS. You will know the rest of your folly once you have lost $20K... TAKE the advice of a 10 yr veteran trader - Avoid the anguish and quit before you start with real, hard-earned money.