that's sad, I have the same problem with a friend. The last time we talked was when he needed a nice recomm to buy house.
Given a choice between the two, I'd have to go with... uhh, let me think about it... ... OK!! I choose BUST!
self doubts are part of it - wait 'til you get a "larger than comfortable" drawdown... you may not have overlooked something, but your system will probably not be exactly the same in a year. i know mine isnt! the odds are strongly against anyone getting it "dead on" on the first try... self doubt is normal and healthy... just so long as it doesnt manifest itself as self-loathing or bashing... i read a book by someone named Hay or Hayes, (Louise?)... she said that after the first time she gave a public speech, she told herself, "that was the first time, ill do better next... ill get better at this!" i remind myself of this all the time in varied forms when i start to get overly self-critical. in part, my issues are a reflection of my upbringing and i know my folks had issues, particularly my dad who disappeared when i was 5. sounds like some of the people around you have some issues. i have been working my profession like a madman... i have been taking small positions/trades in some reits i follow when they pullback and i daytrade once or twice a week up until noon. ive prepared for full-time trading, i have a system that works, but i am self-taught so i have doubts... its hard to let go of the rope of my business and sail into the unknown trading world... so i have constructed a financial safety net... i was raised in 3-D (Death-Doom-Destruction around every corner) by Mom, who lived through the depression... i have noted this psych. trait in my trading, i have an urge to take profits way too soon... i have to fight that and stay positive, particularly when i dont take profits and my position retraces. its just that my business is so good right now... the commercial/apartment real estate market in socal is really popping, so i continue to work.... the money is just too good right now... i fear pulling the plug when things are good, as they are now; then, running into trouble trading and having to crank my business up when interest rates rise and/or the real estate market goes in the crapper. at this point, i almost have to do my business to excess so that it is almost obsessive, almost like if the Puritan-work ethic was blended with a cocaine. mentally, i have already let it go! i almost literally go into a tunnel - i gain weight - i stop working out - i just work-work-work, so that i can trade full-time some day.............. my deep darkest truth is that i have plenty of money - i could stop working now if i move some things around - its just that a little voice in my head says dont be stupid, make hay while sun shines (or sell peanuts when the circus comes to town - read that here on ET - love it). with the money from my investments and even modest trading profits, i could live comfortably (not extravagantly) now. i have picked 2004 as the year i go full-time trading and part-time working (hey, i live in 3-D; i have to work a bit - its the SAFE play). in 2003, i plan to trade until noon four days a week and to work a little less. in 2003 i will also take some seminars and watch how other traders do it! anyway - your post just brought those thoughts up...
On this, my last day of papertrading, I'm happy to report I'm getting my butt kicked. My eyes are burning and I'm having trouble staying awake. Can't give up because it would violate my rule of taking all trades and cost me $5. When my wife gets home she can takeover and I'll go pass out. For those tracking my every move with your buddy list, don't get too excited if I'm on and off all afternoon. Afterall, ET is the homepage on my computer. Might even be one of my daughters doing surfing while IM'in the world....you guys need a life. Since others have expressed ill will toward me, let me express ill will toward the numerous vendors that have found it fit to spam me. May a thousand venomous spiders crawl in your shorts. No doubt today will bring great glee to those with ill will toward my paper profits. In the vaporous world of papertrading, so far there have been 3 trades: S 886.75 L 896.75 -10 * 7 contracts = -$3500 S 888.50 -8.25 * 8 contracts = -$3300 and the stop and reverse point is currently at 895.25. With a little luck it could be a - 15k day. One day later and no doubt I'd go comatose blabbering something like "what hit me?" Had I had time to do more work, I would have probably used another system I've been developing that seems promising. Since I'm supposed to be a vendor in sheep clothing, here's the TS code to my more promising system. I've been testing it with 5 min. bars. All time references are set for Eastern Time. No doubt it too, will be seen as an intro. to the world of hook'em and reel'em in. LOL May this be a treat only day for those that have been so kind to me.
This is an anomaly day with elephants charging both directions. We should sell off, but the funds want to post good numbers by the close, so it's a tough market to trade.
Is that why the market is acting weird, fund managers? I've been waiting for the market to tank, but instead it's hovering in limbo.
40, I don't remember all the trade management logic of your system but if a 40k loss will blow you out in real life, how can you potentially take a one day15k one on paper? You could be finished in two days.
it'll be interesting to see how the increase in position size impacts you on an extened drawdown. if i remember, your system ups the exposure after a loss or two. even stevie cauthen lost like 106 in a row! anyone pyramiding on his losing streak would have been wiped out early...
This is an inside out day for breakout systems. You buy near the high and short near the low, getting whipsawed. These days are rare luckily, and I limit myself to two losses on these type of days, since two losses on breakouts of either side means you're in a trading range, the antithesis of breakouts. You may get a breakout by the end of day, but once a range pattern gets established, people start fading the extremes, and the market tends to stay rangebound.