40, I wonder if you have tested your system on other markets. I reviewed a currency trading program years ago that used a similar strategy, although not the MM rules you employ, and it had great numbers. Also, I think this system should do well on the bonds and eurodollars, provided you expand the timeframe and hold overnight. As you undoubtedly know, there is some benefit to diversifying with a b/o system because one market might be in a range.
why don't you use the capital to buy Subway. It's a better bet than wasting time with the system and market. After you become successful with Subway and have positive cash flow, you always can come back full time on trading. This way your family can live on sandwiches rather than frank and bean until 2004. Market changes very rapidly testing and using just one system will not get you thru 2004. use the money buy a Subway generate cash flow and play the market before you loose too much money and confidence. trading live is different from trading paper and plus you are staking your family's livelihood on it. the pressure is tremendous. and your trading decision could be very bias even if you have a system. good luck,
You've obviously never been in the restaurant business There's always the strong possibility that the Subway will fail and suck him dry. And the hours are a hell of a lot longer. --Db
No papertrading today. Yesterday's range was larger than the day before. Slept in and woke up very tired. I had a dream I went back to my old company and was trying to see a friend of mine. While waiting in the lobby, my old boss came out, saw me, and got secuirty to remove me from the building. Then I woke up. I suppose dream experts could make something out of it. I got pretty negative yesterday. I don't like the way I felt, so I took the advice and found the ignore list. Hopefully I can avoid letting my emotions get the best of me. I stayed up late and caught the late re-broadcast of Lou Dobbs Moneyline on CNN last night. I haven't done that in months, so I think I'm starting to feel more stressed. Too tired to work out, so after posting some replies to questions we're going to hang out at the mall and browse the bookstores. Then catch a $4 movie this afternoon. I hope backing away from the computer will help recharge my batteries. Tomorrow is the last day of papertrading. Hopefully the real trading will resemble the past. Otherwise, it'll be "oil and vinegar, salt and pepper, on your sandwich?".
Thank you for the link to the article. I printed it out and read it. I wish I had seen it before I started working on my 300+ line easylanguage system. If this test works, I'm going to try out some of the ideas and see if I can create a revised version with less code. The percentage for the breakout fluctuates between 40% and 70% of the smallest range. I started the system with it set to 50%. In determining the % to use for the next trade it looks at the past two trades to see if both were losers. If they are, then it increments the % by 10%. If the current % is 70% then it sets a flag and subtracts 10%. Once it hits 40% it reverses again. If both of the past trades are not losers then the % stays at whatever is was for the previous trade. I did this to avoid letting the system get in a rut without trying to find an area where it could make a profit. My biggest concern is a huge string of losses. As long as I eventually get to a winner, then the money management will bring it out of the drawdown quickly.
I hadn't tried other time frames. The 5 min. time frame just felt right. The only time that the time frame matters is when the trailing stop switches to using the parabolic stop. I had to build a table of slopes and figure out what adjustment factor would work the best. If I used a different timeframe, the adjustment factor would be different. I chose the 5 min. bar because this system requires frequent adjustment to the trailing and/or reversal stops. The 5 min. bar seemed to be enough time for us to go to the bathroom or get a drink from the kitchen without missing anything. The other thing is that when the trailing stop switches to a parabolic exit signal, then we have to display a chart to see if the price is getting close to the exit point. Frequently a exit signal is computed and says we should exit the position right away. We need to see these coming so we can setup a market order exit before the signal hits. The 5 min. timeframe just seemed to give us enough time to do all this.
Thanks for the suggestion. No, I haven't tried it on anything else. I don't have the historical data to test other markets. All I wanted from the system was a consistent winning percentage above 50% each year (so that drawdown periods would be short), and a positive average trade. It didn't need to be much, but it did need to be positive. Then, I figured I'd use the money management for the profit level we wanted. My thinking was to trade like I was the house in Las Vegas. As long as the game will pay them more than they lose, all they need is lots of volume. I was hoping for something similar. If we survive, maybe I can get historical data for other markets and see if it works better for one of them.
40 Be very careful of being side tracked make your plans a stick to them once they are working then start experimenting but do not start wavering on your plan now as your about to go live as this will just lead to negative energy especially if you start with a small drawdown. I have been trading for 20 years and it took me 5-6 years before I approached it as professionally as you. I wish you all the success and please drop me a personal note to ask any questions as I would love to see you be successfully. Regards secrets
Went to bed early. Woke up wide awake at 1am. Had lots of thoughts running through my head. How did I get here? Could I have done anything to avoid being laid off? About the old job....why didn't I notice there were no 50 year old guys that weren't execs working there? How can a guy be unemployable in the corporate world at 40? Will I be living in a cardboard box at 70? How could I have been a nice guy for so many years? If I had saved more and invested in the early 90's, I could've been retired by now. Replayed some moments in my life. Like the week after I was laid off and my mother-in-law came to visit. Overheard her whispering to my wife in the kitchen, "...see? I told you he'd never make it in business...". Nevermind the calls to my 80 something year old mom, "you're lazy...go sell cars or something". Yeah, working on a car company strategy to increase market share 1% has alot to do with "Mrs. Jones, how about this nice white car with this synthetic leather interior? We'll throw in the fuzzy dice for your son, Clyde". Also replayed times when I helped others like my older sister when her and her husbands farm was in trouble. Paid her monthly bills for over a year and put her oldest kid through college. Now? She's afraid I'll ask for money, so she screens my calls and sends them to her answering machine. Haven't spoken to her in over a year. Or about the time I helped my other sister during her ugly divorce. Took a week off from work to stay with her while her locks were changed and a security system was installed. Payed off all her credit card bills and sent her checks monthly to help her out. After the settlement and her house was sold she went out and built a new house and furnished it with new stuff. Never repaid me for anything. Now? I call for moral support and she tells me I'm bringing her down. "Please don't call anymore".... and she's a Psychologist! Also had the feeling that I'm missing something in my trading approach. "It can't be this easy, because if it was, everybody would be doing it". Can't help but think I must be curvefitting the data to my needs and fooling myself. The data is probably completely random and all the work I've done will fall apart any day now. Somehow, I've been mining fools gold (paperprofits). The real stuff will never end up in my pocket. Also realized that all my preparation was really a way of putting off doing the real thing. If I never trade with REAL money I'll always be a winner....nothing put on the line....no feelings of stupidity to confont if I lose. After a few hours of this, I went in the bathroom and covered my face with a towel. Had a non-manly cry. I know this is all psychological. When I'm fully awake I don't give these thoughts any time to take root. Hopefully, after I'm trading live...they'll subside or go away completely. I wish I could just flip the "off" switch in my brain. Sometimes I think way too much. Thanks for listening....I guess this is just part of the journey....
40 It's not that hard to come up with a plan but it is difficult to stick to the plan in the heat of battle. You now have a choice you can look back at 60 and say I tried (succeeded or failed) or you can look back and say I wonder if I could have. So the real fear is finding out whether you can or can't hack it. You can only be successful if you try. The negative shit on this web site is probably from people who talk a good fight but do not have the guts to find out if they can hack it. If I can help let me know