4 years later, still trading

Discussion in 'Journals' started by coolweb, Aug 3, 2008.

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  1. Experience talking these days,
    can spot a good trade from a mile away
    can spot a stop out from a inch away

    Dropping theories and ideaologies
    Scaling in and SCaling out
    Stop still 1%

    Its been good :)

    Now equipped with a programmer and an analyst on my team.
    Got a nice office.
    3 man team , Operate very efficiently.
    board I learned from, board I'll be giving back.

    I don't need to say shit these days.
    Trades talk the game :)

    everynow and then will be posting up some cool trades i think can profit 10-20% , risk 1-1.5%
  2. Keep us posted, I feel the same way you do and only look around this board for entertainment purposes but can get some nuggets now and than.

    Trade well.
  3. jtnet


    what does "Dropping theories and ideaologies"

  4. I'll be dropping how I approach the market, theories.

    First theory:
    Market is mostly non-logical aka close to random, Invididual Stocks moves in a very logical way when there is buying or selling pressure (news , instutions , etc)

    Herd theory.

    The market is equivalent to a herd, the herd can change directions at the snap of the finger, or keep running,
    This is the biggest reason why futures or indexes are not the best trading choice, There is no valid target, or real valid places to put stops. Its the herd, it just runs around and trends in a non-logical manner.

    Ever watch a herd of birds fly? Can you predict when they will stop and turn around or do loops? You can't. But they do get to their destination, its just all over the place in a non-logical manner.

    The predictability for stocks is immensely higher in stocks, people try to get rich off the leverage from futures, the only reason why there is so much leverage there is because there is someone else taking the other side of the trade. exactly who are you betting against? Sure ain't 1 lot wonders


    First mover businesses hardly ever make money.

    A index is also the first mover in all situations, being the first mover means you tread the unknown, I prefer to trade knowns. That means I want to trade things AFTER the fact.

    After the fact trading can't be traded on first mover objects.
  5. Random Market direction must be hedged.

    We trade either on buy/sell pressurized stocks, or hedged both ways long/short. For me, Both.

    1) Since we can not accurately predict the indexes next action, We must be hedged the other side (long short) OR we must know there is heavy buy/sell pressure on the price direction of the security.
    - Extinct Stock MarketMakers use to use the #2nd option, since they have order flow knowledge.
    - Option MarketMakers use the #1st option, since they have no idea whats going to happen, they hedge your order with the underlying.

    2) 1% StopLoss takes care of even more market unknowns.
  6. Coolweb's "team":


    Just messin' with you. Good trading. :cool:
  7. Qwerty


    Quote from Coolweb:

    ""its just all over the place in a non-logical manner"

    "it just runs around and trends in a non-logical manner"

    "A index is also the first mover in all situations, being the first mover means you tread the unknown"


    Does this look like the Dow is moving around in a non-logical manner Coolweb? I'm not here to dispute or challenge your assertion that stock indexes or futures are essentially random in their movements, but your argument is questionable to me. I'm just presenting hard facts that clearly demonstrate that a degree of order does takes place in the markets,(not just stocks) each & every single day, I can show you a multitude of examples that are even much more accurate, but of what value would that be if your theory is supposedly without blemish, right? Even though traders will never agree upon what theory is correct, what we all can agree upon is profitablity, what sensible trader could possible argue with that?

    Compare both files, notice from where the sellers pushed the market down(12,800) from this morning after the market opened, but also notice where the buyers finally neutralized the sellers advance just above support at 12,600 near the session close. Even before the market opened for trading the next day, what was clear was that the sellers were calling the shots leading up to the open the following day, the buyers were clearly not as influential. The sellers influence or authority was so strong that it was not contained until the buyers until regrouped at a more profound area of support. Markets move down when buyers are less influential than sellers & vice versa.
  8. Qwerty


    the day after...

  9. Do you think what you just wrote is actually tradeable?
    Sounds like a lot of opinions to me, neutralized, sellers advancing, sellers calling teh shots next day, buyers something.

    Trust me, thats all opinion and 50/50 even after hindsight
  10. You can take a chart each and everyday and annotate it, Except when in real time, it won't work like what you predicted
    #10     Aug 4, 2008
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