4 down days

If it is possible, Would you explain it to me a bit more ? Less then 5 of a 10 period daily..stoch

Thanks,
hombre

 

Try this link http://ichart.yahoo.com/table.csv?s=^SPX&a=00&b=3&c=1950&d=07&e=7&f=2004&g=d&ignore=.csv

Should download a Comma Separated Values format file with SPX daily data from 1950 to present.

 

I ran it in TS from 1970 to 1982 and the quickie results were

%profitable=66.28
W/Lratio=0.42
ProfitFactor=0.83

ideas like these are why a lot of guys are getting whittled down or blown out recently... testing on bull and/or volatile market data and then running the system in dissimilar conditions.

 

From Jan 1970 to Jan 1982 if you buy the 1st up day AFTER 4 down then the results are significantly reversed.

%Profitable=62.90
W/Lratio=0.97
ProfitFactor=1.64

Buying the 4th consecutive down close is buying the proverbial 'falling knife' in a ranging market. By waiting to buy the 1st up day there is at least a HINT of support.

 

When we take a look at DJI on the index not on the future from 1928 to today then we see the following performance for trading 4 days down.

This is before comission and slippage but as we cant trade the index this is for evalution process only and so ther is no trading cost.

So if I had the choice trading 4 days down or buy and hold I would take the second one.

This is long only in a market that rose by over 5000% ?????

 

out. all profitable.

 

You made dimes. after 10% falls.

 

So use a proper data provider. Don't tell me you trade a system and risk real dollars based on what you found at Yahoo?

 

CSI - Commodity Systems Inc. provides Yahoo with their historical data. Have you had a bad experience with CSI.

thanks
fan27

 

4 days down in ES. Continues to be a good buy signal.

fan27