4 Dollar a gallon gas on its way

Discussion in 'Economics' started by EMRGLOBAL, Feb 26, 2008.

  1. According to the Energy Department's latest forecast, gasoline prices should peak near $3.40 a gallon this spring. That figure would match the inflation-adjusted record price for gasoline that was reached in early 1981.

    But many outside analysts consider the government's forecast conservative, foreseeing a sharper spike as refiners come out of the seasonal maintenance period and start producing summer-grade gasoline in March and April.

    Question is, will this really effect be forced to cover and get long yesterday am. Being long is not my favorit and I feel I'm gambling more on this long side for the swing.

    However, the consumer has held in. The bail outs continue to come in droves.

    The final break in the thin ice will be the job market.

    As much as I am fighting my gut instinct and staying long.....unless we see a serious spike up in unemployment, I feel this market will try and move higher, even on the gas prices and oil prices.

    Oil at 103 will be adjusted for the loss of buying power(inflation) from 81...a recession time.

    I have no idea how to gage.......but I feel that after the elections, we will have a mother of all BEARS...so plenty of time to prepare.
  2. EMRG -

    It might be useful to discuss how best to short it. Avoiding futures, what about puts on DBO? Might be some good value there by june.

    Also - big question is how much it drops after how much it rises. Up to 120 then back down to 100 is hardly a political victory.
  3. Diesel for trucks is $3.69 a gallon, closing in on $4, that translates into higher cost for goods moving across U.S.A
  4. I have no clue how those truckers can make any money. It is not like they can drive more/work more hours to make up for the rise in price of diesel when they can't add it into the invoice.

    There can be no increase in productivity to offset the higher trucking price, pure inflation. Maybe buy a new truck, get another mile to the gallon, woosh, that savings went to the insurance co.
  5. Wonder what gas will be at the marina during boating season this year. Do ya think Joe shiftworker is going to put $70 a week in his SUV to drive to work and another $70 in his boat for the weekend?
  6. you can go nuts thinking about all the ways the economy is going to go in the shitter. and then, you can watch CNBC, and see all these pundits with their thumbs up their ass tell you we arent' in a recession. Well, I ain't dead yet, but it's comin'.

    What moronic banter. The brokers have no money. The banks can go to the FED and get all they want, but they won't give it to you. We've got a Presidential Candidate field that looks llike a Special Ed class, but the economy is fine. Sure.

    Dead right on the gas comment. I llived in Europe 35 years ago, and gas was three bucks then. But the cars were small, and I could be in three countries in five minutes. "merica is sorta, you know, spread out. We've got people commuting an hour to work. In Germany in an hour you can be in the French Rivera. Big diff when an 18 wheeler is bringing tomatoes from Florida to Pennsylvania.
  7. balda


    I have a fried who owns 4 big 18 wheelers and I just spoke with him tonight.
    With 4 drivers he was operating at loss after paying for trucks, gas, insurance, salary, permits, so he had to let go one of the drivers and operates one of the trucks himself.
  8. Sam321


    the price of gasoline is based on how people choose their grades. With $100 oil, we should have $5-6+ gas by now, but we don't because they saw the statistics of people going for the cheaper grade as the price approached $4. It's all about supply and demand with the consumer, not just the price of oil.

    Notice how gas went up on the first oil runnup, but not the second. The way people chose their grades told the oil companies they can sell gas in the $3-4 range. All they needed was an excuse to test a price hike.

    And if the price of oil continues to climb and our economy tanks, then I'm sure we will all collectively realize why we took Iraq in the first place, and not sit on our hands and allow commodity-rich foreigners with hostile cultures determine the fate of our economy.
  9. Try living in the UK, it's £1.05 ($2) a litre, that's $9 a gallon!
  10. First I would like to say to all: The price of gas in so cal is already 3.40+ (cheapest grade)

    Second, the OP of this quote: I don't see what difference the "grade" makes, you buy gas either way and it is from the same company either way. I always buy the cheapest. (personally I think "grade" is a crock of s>>>

    Lastly, We have not "taken " Iraq. we don' t own it, we don't run it and from what I can gather we don't have much a chance at doing anything there other then spend spend spend our money and risk lives for no reason whatsoever. _ I get what you are trying to say but I disagree that we "took Iraq".

    I don't think large companies sit around and try to think of ways to conspire for global domination. What we have here is pure product of Republican leadership. Thankfully that will end soon, however, it is too late. . . It has been almost 100 years since the depression and everything runs in cycles.
    #10     Feb 27, 2008