4.70% yield on 10 Yr

Discussion in 'Financial Futures' started by blackguard, Feb 5, 2004.

  1. Ive been bullish on bonds, but as of yesterday have switched to being bearish. The low was seen as of a couple weeks ago at 3.93%, and am confident in projecting 4.70% yield on the 10 yr sometime in 2004.

    This very well could be the trade of the year.

    Just a thought.
  2. tjmather


    Ten year JGB are yielding 1.3% - see

    I think this is an even better short than US bonds, and besides the carry cost is lower (1.3% vs around 4% for US bonds). The carry cost is the interest you have to pay when you go short a bonds future.

    Marc Faber recommended a short on the JGB in his June Newsletter when ten year yields where around 0.60%. See http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/!gbdreport_samples/GBD0306.pdf (Pages 14-16). The 10 year mini-JGB futures trade on the Singapore Exchange, and the larger 10 year JGB futures trade on the Tokyo Exchange.