4,000/1 Odds

Discussion in 'Professional Trading' started by BlueHorseshoe, Nov 19, 2008.

  1. Not enough info from that study. A REAL daytrader will not start trading for a living until he has had some success before going fulltime. Someone who puts $2k in an account and starts trading for first time ain't a real daytrader.

    As an example, I think the study tells you that out of 4000 who put $2k in an account and started trading for the first time, ONE actually made it to the point where he was successful enough to trade for a living, fulltime.
     
    #31     Nov 25, 2008
  2. I have got a problem with those stats. There aren't 2 million
    daytraders on the face of the earth , how did he find them in Taiwan alone ? They used a very loose definition "anyone dabbling in the market on a regular basis". These are not pros or semi-pros. As a whole they are probably a less sophisticated bunch and then there is the Chinese gambling culture. So these numbers I take them with a grain of salt but the reality isn't a great deal better probably.
     
    #32     Nov 25, 2008
  3. The real odds are more like 2 or 3 out of 100 not good!
     
    #33     Nov 25, 2008
  4. I kind of agree with you, but you're missing one key element. Trading is a SKILL, not a book you read or game you play. It takes practice and dedication... for example, I sim traded for over a year (full time) before I started trading real money. Now I don't think it should take people that long, but the point is there... you can treat this like a game or a business. I bet you $1 that your friend will NOT stay profitable if he keeps playing this as a game.

    CD
     
    #34     Nov 25, 2008
  5. TraDaToR

    TraDaToR

    I have a question:

    How long do you have to trade successfully to be considered profitable?
     
    #35     Nov 26, 2008
  6. kenten

    kenten

    it says here that "The population in the Taiwan Area of the Republic of China was estimated in July 2007 at 22,858,872"
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Taiwan

    so 1 out of every 10 people in taiwan is a daytrader ( not just trader or interested in trading or seen a chart or tape)

    statistics are flawed all the way
     
    #36     Nov 26, 2008
  7. You are jumping to conclusions. They looked at data over ~15 years ... so some daytraded for only a short period over that time.

    And yes, 10% of the population, or +20% of the adult population has daytraded for some period over the last 15 years. Taiwan had a bubble economy just like Japan - but it was more extreme here. Everyone caught the fever, and nobody forgot. Lots of people come back from time to time to try their hand again.
     
    #37     Nov 26, 2008
  8. A lot of the posts on this thread provide evidence that, at the end of the day, people will believe what they want to believe, regardless of what any evidence may suggest.

    So no point in arguing ... you win. (Hahaha!)
     
    #38     Nov 26, 2008
  9. vandger

    vandger

    it determinded on how u guys define "daytrader".
     
    #39     Nov 27, 2008