I've been forming a thesis about safe places to park large sums of money if need be. And I had been arguing for TIPS. Inflation protected Gov bonds. Today on Bloomberg TV. That Shiller cat who keeps pounding on the housing mentioned that was what he was buying and that it was a good idea. The amazing thing about this sell off is it's not at the end of some hiking cycle much the opposite and thru all of this " slowdown " inflation is of course north of 5%.... it's the stagflation scenario really and at 2.2% over inflation for these TIPS.... that's about an 8% return. And that's guaranteed folks as long as inflation remains elevated. ~ stoney
Just 15 minutes left folks and a lot can still happen. A series of mini gap ups today show buyers willing to pay up today. We are currently retracing which is to be expected and could easily just go down the drain here but this time can it be different? Watch S&P 1020-21 at the close and on the open. If we take that out that should lead to a good round of short covering & another strong thrust to the upside.... of course a violation of 1000 would be a terrible horrible technical way to end the day. ~ stoney
And they plunge into the close leaving the stonedinvestor just where we found him this morning at his breakfast table surrounded by his own mucus and terribly depressed. I tried to get excited again, I tried so hard folks-this is the most miserable hateful market ever and I've seen quite a few years worth. Sure I scalped $4 and even made some bucks on the DOW in general. Who knows about tomorrow might be limit down. and I have a new MOS position of course! Ay caramba. I'm just sooooo tired now I just want to slip into a gooey mess, a big patch of quicksand- I want it all to go away but every morning it's there again. This pain. This awful pain. Now I have to put on my happy face for the wife and kid. If it wasn't for the NY Giants right now i would be suicidal.... I can't find a song to trade this market nothing works... sad songs, happy songs.... I'm turning to anger, it's the Sex pistols tomorrow.... My head my aching head, I think I will take a bath. ~stoney
It's a new day. Real good read on Alan Greenspan in the NY Times read it. Of course the truth did come out a long time ago, 1997, about the use of excessive derivatives and in fact a girl with the unfortunate name of Brooksley broke it wide open in a report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. What happened? Well, she was forced into being quiet by the old boys network, specifically Rubin & Greenspan. I always disliked Greenspan and I wasn't sure why, now I know. Rubin I always held in high regard... now he is shown to be but another weak spined man who when faced with the truth browbeat a girl into not pushing reforms because it would destroy the system. The politics of fear, that far back. Clinton signed the law that sealed Brooksley's fate and her powers were taken away and she quit. Thanks Bubba. Iceland is a fine example of everything wrong with big money centers, except of course they have nothing else. faced with no lenders they are turning to Mother Russia. At this point we might as well do the same. As predicted we are getting some loosening this morning of credit as depicted in the bond market. The only problem is as the talking heads have piled you into GE and other " safe " investments the one's that will actually rally of course will be the risky stocks. I've been looking at Steel stocks but steel buying has virtually stopped globally- Copper makes some sense Freeport mac was highlighted by the Fast Money fools last night. As weak as my conviction is now I almost listened. Crap banks like Natl City will soar today but with such a tight investment timeline- Until the next crisis- what can we buy and feel good about? I hope to figure that out in the next half hour. No promises. This whole week into a long weekend I believe is being orchestrated by the Fed and the powers that be... Tomorrow the holders of Lehman junk will be revealed, that will be a big step, for others will know who they can somewhat safely trade with after that. Then Friday a meeting with all the potential buyers of CDO's.... that is meant to hold out hope through the holiday.... As a contrary indicator of course we have Cramer, he was on NBC TV the morning of the 700 point decline pouring idiot grease on the fire telling his minions to pull out of the market. I love the way he says take a little off the table! That's a phrase commonly used when you have profits! Idiot. My mother bought Rimm on his advice I'm sure, it wasn't mine.... well you know how that ended. He was pushing a powerline stk with wind potential PWR- Quantas. I'm looking at VERTEX PHARM this morning. VRTX. ~ stoney
HERES THE DEAL ... It's very obvious what to buy. I feel like the Wolf sniffing around various clumps of trash, crap and gold. ... I've been circling the right stks. I haven't been doing enough with them. .... Look for the REAL gap ups today and I happen to have them all on my watch list. Here are the names. ..... We've already dealt with MOS. .... EWZ... a lot of this thread has been musing on this index. The Brazilian currency has been free falling how do you then buy into a index based on earnings in the Real or whatever they call it down there. I noticed that on an apparent big down day over there this was up? How? I've begged ET'ers to step forward and chip in here, there is a whole thread I know devoted to Brazilian traders... well the chart, ugly though it is, happens to be in in very obvious long term support. EWZ @ $40.46 is up over $3! $37 close>>>>>>> $39.64 at the open. One trick I like to do is look for a big pop and jump in on a half retrace. Another trick is to scan for your breakouts and buy the one that holds it's opening price. More on that later. ... ENER... Yup the ole' bad boy again. Perhaps no company has been better covered than this one by me right here at ET! Check prior threads... that being said this was the weirdest stock yesterday flying all over the place up and down $6 at a time, it was as if a hedge fund was selling and the company was buying at the same time... We have a proud PE of 433 folks, I'm not kidding. But with over a billion in backlog and the move into residential roofing solar... this Co continues to be right place at the right time... and the analysts see, to agree with recent upgrades and high price targets despite oils fall.... @ $41 up $4!! $37.38 close>>>>>>> $40.68 open .....DRYS! Can't help it. I know I took a huge loss in this name just recently- it really got me, but there it is again buying ships without laying out cash and generally looking like a first recoverer should the baltic Dry stop it's apocalyptic visions. @ $ 22.55 up 8% $20.88 close >>>>>>> $ $22.50 open. So of the top ones Dryships is closest to losing it's opening price support. EWZ & ENER will occupy my afternoon as VRTX is sleepy as hell and ditto GreatBatch which has this great chart but never moves when I'm staring at it. How Am I Doing? I'm Off My High, that's how I'm doing. ~ stoney
Well it's instructive to see that the RS or lack thereofit from DRYS as shown above led to that stk having the biggest fall when the mkt tipped over... there was 8% on the short side for the astute investor. Then there's me. Checking in on these names. Despite the free fall of Prudential and MS... EWZ @ $39 now roughly where it opened with a high of $41.49... Too much risk not enough reward to bet on this if the market turns back up today. ENER @ $ 39.75 About a buck below where it opened, with a high of $42.50... there's $2 to $4 here in a swing. Keep it on the list. ... And using the TV to our advantage we know they were pushing Freeport Mac hard on The Fast Fools show, their viewers saw an gap open at $45.73 they raced in as it climbed to $46.60.... and fell off a cliff now at $41.91... $4 swing here potentially as well or more. Now it gets tricky because the shorts are back in pressing the financial names and some are diving. If Paulson and Co decide to tell Cox to put the ban back on. It will be a defacto shutting down of our market and restarting to the psyche of everyone. What to do? Lure em in and then come out with something. Something big. But what will it be? Toe the line here and try not to panic and put some of the naked traders in handcuffs just so we can be confident this is all on the up and up. ~ stoney
So very interesting. They held the line and didn't panic and who knows the Plunge Team may have bought some Pru common, the stk comes roaring back more than $8!!! Some easy dollars were made between $29 and $33...I may have gotton off too soon this is like State Street that day that did a $20 round trip one day. Astute watchers will have noticed that at todays low there was a DIVERGENCE!! Despite the new lows on the DJI & SPX the NDX failed to confirm causing a positive divergence.... it's a little glimmer I know but it's all we have. Surprised FCX isn't bouncing. APWR is testing some 2 day tops.... worth to keep on your board. I feel an intense need to eat today. I think this is half of my problem I sit here with nine cups of coffee in me and the high blood pressure and with nothing but a pipe's worth inside me I work all day... the mind needs food. I'm going to go out and have a lunch and screw it some saki! I haven't been able to sleep lately worried that the bank will fail or crash or take away my weekend house. STOP tHE WORLD! I more than want to get off... can't we just get up to S&P 1300 and flatline I don't care how long. Stability. Just an once of stability. Markets are always unstable at the times of big falls, in 1929 stocks came down around 40% as now ... then they rallied 50%!!!!! I won't tell you where they ended up but can we at least get the damn up 50% so we can all decide what to do??? mamafuko saam here I come. ~ stoney
Recession update 2 Lunch Out. Well I skipped down the street thinking about pork rolls and Saki I was practically salivating by the time I got there... closed. They attributed this sad fact to construction; I think we all know why. Not enough eaters. off to some new joint - all the chairs up there too. have to resort to Gramercy Tavern which is always open but often very hard to get into. Got right in. NEW DRINK ALERT* The Pineapple something- might of been Punisher. Pineapple flavored rum (light on that) fresh lemonade and strawberrys and I think lime.... very nice way to forget the market. Tough menue for me there but special sandwhich perfect fried egg over house cured ham and some cheese and perfect grilled roll..... OMFG! Yes. For desert chocolate pudding with salt something ontop OMFG!!! A press pot, a pipe and I'm back. Look at ENER OMFG! Once again same exact thing as yesterday now $5 down from the spike... certainly timing here is critical but it's going to keep getting sold and keep gapping up the next morning until one day it just joggs away. Which direction though? Couple interesting TV spots on Bloomy two very smart dudes shot down my TIPS plan pretty good. On CNBC some dude up this year big recommended Shwab & NFLX. That's the 2nd day Charles' name has come up (fastmoney yesterday). That NFLX is an interesting call, makes a lot of sense. Short the movie theaters (AMC, etc) long the NFLX. Cramer had a piece in New York Mag very neg he said Amazon would end up ruling the world especially when they get same day delivery We just broke 9,000 and you heard an audible gasp from the floor. Scary. Plunge Team, nows the time. Ford is $1 stk now that's going to have to go private. Will the Gov start selling cars now? Earnings can't get in fast enough. Sure they won't be forward raising but ex financials they won't be THAT bad I don't think. It's 3:06 lets take a stab at a freak bounceback rally now.... Fib support 941..... ah diving as I type... maybe not... I'm untrusting of everything especially my Iceland accounts. 1 year from the high and 38% from the top... that's got to set off a computer or two besides mine. There is some selling in treasuries and some minor strength in tech. POSITIVE DIVERGENCES despite the 250 point drop. 7 days in a row down and I've got a bad cold in my back. Big move here big up day tomorrow it has to be. It must be. It shall be. How am I doing? I'm at a 4 year low mom!~ stoney